THIS IS NOT YOUR GREAT-GRANDFATHERS GREAT DEPRESSION


the comparisons have all been made. our present situation has been disected and analyzed from every vantage and data point and the results are in. the current economic and geo-political situation is not really like any one previous time but has some characteristics of many previous times. the comps would be 1990-91, 1980-81, 1973-74, 1939-41, and 1929-1932, woops, that ones not a comp! at least thats what they want us to believe. low inflation, high productivity, low unemployment, low interest rates, accomodative fiscal and monetary policies, and unwaverring strength and resilience are what will all but ensure an economic revival of 1990's preportion. or maybe not. and just maybe we are at the beginning of what could prove to be the "2nd great depression"?

i know its not very patriotic, but as hard as they try to convince us that the economy is fundamentally sound and that we have an economic system that is to strong to fail, too many things are too uncertain and based on lots of hope and optimism. in fact, as our leaders continue to talk up our strengths and minimize our weaknesses, they still see the need for additional measures to keep our situation from getting dramatically worse.

now i'm not predicting 25% unemployment or uncontrollable deflation. what i am suggesting is that just maybe things have gotten out of reach of our normal parameters and thus normal efforts will not be able to rectify what ailes our economy and more importantly the world's geo-political stability. yeah, it sounds pretty nuts and most of us dont really understand what the consequences could be, but suffice to say they wont be good. some proof of that is the way things feel now; economically and politically, even while we are told everything is ok and is about to get better. it sure doesnt feel that way to me. in fact, things feel pretty lousy for a so called muted/jobless/profitless recovery. i know many realtives and friends who are financially unhappy and unsure about the future. i know as many clients who voice the same sentiment. realization seems to be setting in, which will not help things. as people come to terms with the new world order and the actual economic problems, future prospects darken and fear sets in. people are retrenching and trying to become comfortable in there present situation which may create even further economic malaise.

boom to bust to recession to muted recovery to...i'm not sure anybody can predict whats next but to believe that we can fiscally or monetarily manipulate our country through this increasingly uncertain period in our history is just way too optimistic.


that brings me to the catchy title of this rant. could it be possible that we are at the beginning of the 2nd great depression? i know we are not like japan. i know we are not in a housing bubble. i know we are the strongest most resilient country in the world. i know all those catchy sound bites that put us all at ease and keep us going to the malls and refinancing our homes. we are being brainwashed to some degree. the more a lie is told the more you believe it. be weary of the messenger and be careful what you do with the information. it may not be true and if its not then what will you do when you find out? dont blame the messenger of this or any other message for things that you chose to ignore or believe.

if this does prove to be an economic period of no growth or down growth and it produces the negative consequences of previous depressionary periods, then we all may need to change what we do and how we live. as most of us, including myself, find change very difficult, if not impossible, those who act first and decisivley may be able to get in front of the devastation and prepare to deal with economic and financial calamity that will go on all around us.

as you can see by my first posting, i have a kind of negative view of things right now and i dont have a problem expressing those views. i do believe that there is a benefit to looking for the negatives, identifying the causes and trying to prepare and benefit for the positives that will come from that negative situation. i will try to be balanced in my views and i will try to give helpful ideas for dealing with the reality of whatever is going on.

have a grateful day!

regards
larry TGB