George "double-dip" Bush


in a bold attempt to prevent an early departure from the oval office, george 'dubya' bush, soon to be known as george'double-dip' bush, has presented the nation with a fiscal growth plan, better known as a tax cut for everyone, that will, according to all white house advisors(who want to keep their jobs), fix our slow economic recovery. outside the tight circle surrounding mr. bush, there remains many questions regarding the headline grabbing $674billion package and its ability to create economic stimulation.

over the past few days, new economic data released suggest that the so called 'soft patch' that the economy entered after the summer is somewhat more than a 'patch'. in fact, except for the ISM reading being better than expected and just slightly over the break-even point, all the other economic data has shown that the economy is still in the 'soft patch'. and after 3 months or so, the patch may turn into, well, a dropcloth! if this continues, it would undoubtedly turn into at least one down quarter for GDP. that of course would put forth the possibility of a 2nd down quarter. if that were to happen we would enter the dreaded 'double-dip' zone.

not many forecasters are calling for a double dip recession, but as the data continues to flow, there seems to be some evidence that we are headed for another slowdown after bouncing in the 3rd quarter 2002. the question is will it be bad enough to be worse than the last dip or is it just a 'soft patch' that the economy is working its way through? with the help of the last FED rate cut and the presidents 'talking up the market' with his tax plan speech many beleive that growth is upon us.

the stock market seems to be a believer. so far, 2003 has been a banner year. all indices are rallying in advance of the war and the passage of the tax pkg and is looking forward to earnings rebounding and many of the other problems being resolved favorably. alot to ask for no doubt, but many believe that the odds are in there favor after such a prolonged bear market. over the past few months the only thing that has gotten better is stock prices. venezuela has gotten much worse causing additional problems for oil, nuclear korea has lit up its plutonium factory, osama and his gang are still at large, and our economy needs another stimulus pkg to keep us spending. as much as our leaders want us to believe we are 'the strongest most resilient economy in the world' it just doesnt feel that way.

many hang there forecasts on 'hope' and assumptions of favorable outcomes for all the problems that are still present. unfortunately, hope and positive thinking may not be enough to hold things together.

have a grateful day
larry