GO KISS YOUR CHILDREN...
and your wife and your brother, sister, mother, father, and anyone else who you care about.
thats how to prepare for whats about to happen. war that is. i just got home and watched the news. in the opening 3 minutes i was informed that 1) we are definitely going to attack iraq and 2) nuclear korea is making nuclear weapons.
now what? what is going to happen? the words i am hearing are unimaginable. we are about to change world history, hopefully for the better. that being the case, i guess the only thing to do is kiss everybody and really live each day like there is at least the possibility that it may be your last. because it seems that the possibility now exists more then ever. YIKES!
have a very grateful day!
larry
Friday, January 31, 2003
$100,000,000,000.00...NOW THATS ALOT OF MONEY
its almost comical. in fact it is comical. its right out of the popular austin powers movie 'goldmember'. dr. evil threatens to destroy the world if the world organization doesnt pay him "one million, billion, gazillion...yen", which is about $100,000,000,000.00. yesterday, aol time warner announced that they took a 100 billion dollar loss due to bad investments and bad business. now when i was growing up a billion dollars was alot of money. today, while 100 billion dollars is a big number, it doesnt seem to affect people in the same way that maybe it ought to. to try and put it in prospective, its more than the gdp of many nations, its more than we are being told the war against iraq will cost, its the largest corporate loss in history(so far), its more than the tax relief package is supposed to save the american people in 2003, and its just plain a huge amount of money. and oh yeah, it was yours! somehow, somewhere, you and i own some of that loss. whether directly as an owner of aol stock or through some mutual fund that owns it, as almost all of them do.
even as we are told that the downturn in the economy is ending, huge multi-national, blue-chip companies are still marking down the assets that they over paid for during the boom. and the debt used to accumulate those assets is still there! amazing numbers, astounding mistakes, inconceivable corporate gaffs, unapologetic managements and complacent investors/owners just take it in stride like this is normal. and now that its done, everything will get better. what?! this cannot be. no outrage?! no economic backwash?! nobody gets fired?! what the hell is wrong with us?! are we so numb to whats going on that we dont even know how to react anymore? and now that a new bar has been set, i guess the next huge write-off will seem small and insignificant.
the numbers are absurd and the complacency is downright unbelievable. the american investor is being pummeled while rock star managers and corporate executives continue to exercise options and take home huge pay packages while your retirement savings continue to get stolen by these companies. and its not just speculative companies. its all the major corporations that operate in our 'fundamentally sound' economy. there is nothing fundamentally sound about this. in fact, it shows just how broken the system is and how much risk is still left to deal with. if this company owns assets that have been destroyed than dont others have the same problem? the answer is yes and the real questions should be how many and how much?
we will soon find out and my guess is it wont be pretty. but since we can handle aol's $100billion, the next write-off bomb wont seem so bad.
have a grateful day!
larry
its almost comical. in fact it is comical. its right out of the popular austin powers movie 'goldmember'. dr. evil threatens to destroy the world if the world organization doesnt pay him "one million, billion, gazillion...yen", which is about $100,000,000,000.00. yesterday, aol time warner announced that they took a 100 billion dollar loss due to bad investments and bad business. now when i was growing up a billion dollars was alot of money. today, while 100 billion dollars is a big number, it doesnt seem to affect people in the same way that maybe it ought to. to try and put it in prospective, its more than the gdp of many nations, its more than we are being told the war against iraq will cost, its the largest corporate loss in history(so far), its more than the tax relief package is supposed to save the american people in 2003, and its just plain a huge amount of money. and oh yeah, it was yours! somehow, somewhere, you and i own some of that loss. whether directly as an owner of aol stock or through some mutual fund that owns it, as almost all of them do.
even as we are told that the downturn in the economy is ending, huge multi-national, blue-chip companies are still marking down the assets that they over paid for during the boom. and the debt used to accumulate those assets is still there! amazing numbers, astounding mistakes, inconceivable corporate gaffs, unapologetic managements and complacent investors/owners just take it in stride like this is normal. and now that its done, everything will get better. what?! this cannot be. no outrage?! no economic backwash?! nobody gets fired?! what the hell is wrong with us?! are we so numb to whats going on that we dont even know how to react anymore? and now that a new bar has been set, i guess the next huge write-off will seem small and insignificant.
the numbers are absurd and the complacency is downright unbelievable. the american investor is being pummeled while rock star managers and corporate executives continue to exercise options and take home huge pay packages while your retirement savings continue to get stolen by these companies. and its not just speculative companies. its all the major corporations that operate in our 'fundamentally sound' economy. there is nothing fundamentally sound about this. in fact, it shows just how broken the system is and how much risk is still left to deal with. if this company owns assets that have been destroyed than dont others have the same problem? the answer is yes and the real questions should be how many and how much?
we will soon find out and my guess is it wont be pretty. but since we can handle aol's $100billion, the next write-off bomb wont seem so bad.
have a grateful day!
larry
Tuesday, January 28, 2003
THERE'S A 1st TIME FOR EVERYTHING
some firsts are great. we all know what they are. your first kiss, your first car, your first child, and the list goes on. some firsts are not so great and in fact many suck. if and when we attack iraq, it will be the first time in our country's history that our armed forces will be set into motion to attack a sovereign nation that has not attacked us. the repercussions are unknown. this will set a precedent and possibly a new standard for what is acceptable in the 21st century.
the comparisons to other wars or military actions in modern history are not applicable. the united states will no doubt be seen as an imperialist government that is trying to dominate the world. whether that is true or not will not matter. what will matter is how the world reacts to our actions. my guess is that the world won't react very favorably and it will be a blow to globalization efforts that have been succeeding for a number of years now.
to try and calculate the risks versus the rewards of our nations geo-political policy is almost impossible. suffice to say that our nation will have to work twice as hard to convince the rest of the world that we are a peace loving nation that favors democratic rule and fairness.
have a grateful day!
larry
some firsts are great. we all know what they are. your first kiss, your first car, your first child, and the list goes on. some firsts are not so great and in fact many suck. if and when we attack iraq, it will be the first time in our country's history that our armed forces will be set into motion to attack a sovereign nation that has not attacked us. the repercussions are unknown. this will set a precedent and possibly a new standard for what is acceptable in the 21st century.
the comparisons to other wars or military actions in modern history are not applicable. the united states will no doubt be seen as an imperialist government that is trying to dominate the world. whether that is true or not will not matter. what will matter is how the world reacts to our actions. my guess is that the world won't react very favorably and it will be a blow to globalization efforts that have been succeeding for a number of years now.
to try and calculate the risks versus the rewards of our nations geo-political policy is almost impossible. suffice to say that our nation will have to work twice as hard to convince the rest of the world that we are a peace loving nation that favors democratic rule and fairness.
have a grateful day!
larry
Monday, January 27, 2003
SERVING AT THE PLEASURE OF THE PRESIDENT
it is one of the perks that the president of the united states gets while in office. that is, he gets to appoint cabinet members, advisors and supreme court justices among others and those people serve at, what is reffered to as, the pleasure of the president. lately it seems that the list of those who have this prestigious designation has grown to include leaders of sovereign nations.
what i mean is the following. when the president was not getting any pleasure from his treasury secretary paul o'neill, he was out. larry lindsey faced the same fate. harvey pitt and william webster hardly got the chance to give any pleasure before they were summarily dismissed. now glenn hubbard may step aside for his lack of pleasure creation. even trent lott allowed the president to push him back down to a regular spot in the fish bowl when he caused displeasure.
now to the leaders that the president is still getting pleasure from. they include, but are not limited to, cuba's fidel castro, libya's momar khadafi, pakistan's pervez musharraf, the PLO's yasser arafat, saudi arabia's prince abdullah, iran's mohammed khatami, venezuela's hugo chavez, and last but certainly not least, nuclear korea's kim jong il. all of which are tyrannical leaders that supress and dictate over their people but do not create displeasure for the president of the united states. on the other side of the pleasure scale would be iraq's saddam hussein who has been encouraged and asked very nicely, and not so nicely to step down, as he is giving no pleasure to the president.
why does the president get to pick and choose which of these terrible leaders is allowed to remain in power? if saddam is causing displeasure then he should go. but so should each of the leaders i listed above. our current march towards war with this regime that the president is displeased with makes some including me wonder how the rest of the world will react if the united states behaves like an imperialist power that tries to dominate world order. we have never done that before, at least not like we are now, and it could cause issues that we will have to deal with well into the future. this isn't to say that saddam should stay in power. but how he leaves power should be handled in the same way that we have handled these situations in the past, diplomatically not militarily. the united states doesn't overthrow governments. at least we didn't used to.
so we head towards war so that the president can appoint a new leader in iraq. hopefully it will work out as nicely as his domestic changes. yet as we are all aware of, tyrannical dictators do not leave office without a fight.
have a grateful day!
larry TGB
it is one of the perks that the president of the united states gets while in office. that is, he gets to appoint cabinet members, advisors and supreme court justices among others and those people serve at, what is reffered to as, the pleasure of the president. lately it seems that the list of those who have this prestigious designation has grown to include leaders of sovereign nations.
what i mean is the following. when the president was not getting any pleasure from his treasury secretary paul o'neill, he was out. larry lindsey faced the same fate. harvey pitt and william webster hardly got the chance to give any pleasure before they were summarily dismissed. now glenn hubbard may step aside for his lack of pleasure creation. even trent lott allowed the president to push him back down to a regular spot in the fish bowl when he caused displeasure.
now to the leaders that the president is still getting pleasure from. they include, but are not limited to, cuba's fidel castro, libya's momar khadafi, pakistan's pervez musharraf, the PLO's yasser arafat, saudi arabia's prince abdullah, iran's mohammed khatami, venezuela's hugo chavez, and last but certainly not least, nuclear korea's kim jong il. all of which are tyrannical leaders that supress and dictate over their people but do not create displeasure for the president of the united states. on the other side of the pleasure scale would be iraq's saddam hussein who has been encouraged and asked very nicely, and not so nicely to step down, as he is giving no pleasure to the president.
why does the president get to pick and choose which of these terrible leaders is allowed to remain in power? if saddam is causing displeasure then he should go. but so should each of the leaders i listed above. our current march towards war with this regime that the president is displeased with makes some including me wonder how the rest of the world will react if the united states behaves like an imperialist power that tries to dominate world order. we have never done that before, at least not like we are now, and it could cause issues that we will have to deal with well into the future. this isn't to say that saddam should stay in power. but how he leaves power should be handled in the same way that we have handled these situations in the past, diplomatically not militarily. the united states doesn't overthrow governments. at least we didn't used to.
so we head towards war so that the president can appoint a new leader in iraq. hopefully it will work out as nicely as his domestic changes. yet as we are all aware of, tyrannical dictators do not leave office without a fight.
have a grateful day!
larry TGB
Sunday, January 26, 2003
THE 'REAL' STATE OF THE UNION
on tuesday night the president will give his state of the union address. as is customary, and probably appropriate, it will focus on the more positve aspects of our great country. it will be a well crafted speech designed to give an assessment of where the country is and where it is going. many advisors and cabinet members will help the president to say the 'right' things and point to the future in as upbeat a way as possible. thats all well and good, yet at this time of global and domestic turmoil, maybe a more realistic assessment would be more appropriate.
ladies and gentlemen, the president of the united states.......standing ovation lasting 5 minutes.............
This past year has not been one of our nations best. the catholic church had a horrifying sexual abuse scandal. corporate leaders ruined many major corporations with infectious greed and fraudulant bookkeeping. the stock market posted its third down year in a row. unemployment is rising and is probably understated. our economy is decelerating and may take years to repair itself. the countries pension and social security systems are under severe stress as the baby boom generation heads for retirement. the capital markets are trying to rebuild trust after a conflict of interest scandal ruined its credibility. the country's balance sheet is deteriorating and we are running deficits in our budget and our balance of trade. we are losing our competitive edge in the world due to globalization stealing our workers jobs. corporate debt is defaulting at an unprecedented rate and causing strain in the banking system. personal balance sheets are just as unhealthy with personal bankruptcies at all time highs. healthcare at home and abroad has not lived up to 21st century needs or expectations. our global ecosystem needs serious attention yet we are uncommitted to the changes necessary to save the enviroment for future generations. we are fighting many enemies around the world and have more soldiers deployed and ready for battle than any other time since world war 2.
as the leader of the country and the free world, i pledge to do everything in my power to change the course that we are on and to rebuild our nations health for a prosperous future. it will not be easy and may take more time than i have left in office this term and maybe even my next term, if you afford me that chance. but i will continue to do what i think will help fix what ailes the country and in turn the world. some of those decisions may not please everybody and they may not work right away. time is necessary for what we need to do and what needs to be fixed. i will make some hard choices that i think will make a real difference and not based on whether i will be a popular president or will get me re-elected. i know what you are thinking, come on, give me a break. the president will make decisions based on whats right and not on the polls. but i will. in order to lead the country out of its current funk i will do that. we have failed in many areas lately but that doesnt mean they cannot be corrected. i have the power and the ability to set things staight and thats my committment to the american people and the world.
this is a great and powerful country and i am confident that we can overcome our current challenges. it just may take some time and some sacrifice on all our parts.
thats is how i would start. then i would go into the bold and dynamic initiatives i would propose to get our country through this time in history. it would be captivating and shocking. the pundits would go nuts but the critics might say something nice about my honesty and courage. i would hope the american people would be appreciative of my candid assessment and realistic outlook for the future rather than the usual blather that says nothing and insults their intelligence.
so, on tuesday night don't be surprised if we get a little honesty and a little candor along with lots of blather as i am not helping the president with this speech and he probably wouldn't take my advice anyway.
HAVE A GR8FUL DAY(:-)---<<
LARRY
on tuesday night the president will give his state of the union address. as is customary, and probably appropriate, it will focus on the more positve aspects of our great country. it will be a well crafted speech designed to give an assessment of where the country is and where it is going. many advisors and cabinet members will help the president to say the 'right' things and point to the future in as upbeat a way as possible. thats all well and good, yet at this time of global and domestic turmoil, maybe a more realistic assessment would be more appropriate.
ladies and gentlemen, the president of the united states.......standing ovation lasting 5 minutes.............
This past year has not been one of our nations best. the catholic church had a horrifying sexual abuse scandal. corporate leaders ruined many major corporations with infectious greed and fraudulant bookkeeping. the stock market posted its third down year in a row. unemployment is rising and is probably understated. our economy is decelerating and may take years to repair itself. the countries pension and social security systems are under severe stress as the baby boom generation heads for retirement. the capital markets are trying to rebuild trust after a conflict of interest scandal ruined its credibility. the country's balance sheet is deteriorating and we are running deficits in our budget and our balance of trade. we are losing our competitive edge in the world due to globalization stealing our workers jobs. corporate debt is defaulting at an unprecedented rate and causing strain in the banking system. personal balance sheets are just as unhealthy with personal bankruptcies at all time highs. healthcare at home and abroad has not lived up to 21st century needs or expectations. our global ecosystem needs serious attention yet we are uncommitted to the changes necessary to save the enviroment for future generations. we are fighting many enemies around the world and have more soldiers deployed and ready for battle than any other time since world war 2.
as the leader of the country and the free world, i pledge to do everything in my power to change the course that we are on and to rebuild our nations health for a prosperous future. it will not be easy and may take more time than i have left in office this term and maybe even my next term, if you afford me that chance. but i will continue to do what i think will help fix what ailes the country and in turn the world. some of those decisions may not please everybody and they may not work right away. time is necessary for what we need to do and what needs to be fixed. i will make some hard choices that i think will make a real difference and not based on whether i will be a popular president or will get me re-elected. i know what you are thinking, come on, give me a break. the president will make decisions based on whats right and not on the polls. but i will. in order to lead the country out of its current funk i will do that. we have failed in many areas lately but that doesnt mean they cannot be corrected. i have the power and the ability to set things staight and thats my committment to the american people and the world.
this is a great and powerful country and i am confident that we can overcome our current challenges. it just may take some time and some sacrifice on all our parts.
thats is how i would start. then i would go into the bold and dynamic initiatives i would propose to get our country through this time in history. it would be captivating and shocking. the pundits would go nuts but the critics might say something nice about my honesty and courage. i would hope the american people would be appreciative of my candid assessment and realistic outlook for the future rather than the usual blather that says nothing and insults their intelligence.
so, on tuesday night don't be surprised if we get a little honesty and a little candor along with lots of blather as i am not helping the president with this speech and he probably wouldn't take my advice anyway.
HAVE A GR8FUL DAY(:-)---<<
LARRY
Saturday, January 25, 2003
ARE YOU READY?
what have you done to prepare for the future? some people set goals. some people make new year resolutions. some people make "to do" lists. some people write business plans. some people even make a budget. others just 'wing it' and decide what to do when they have to. researchers have found that people spend more time planning there next vacation than they do planning for their future.
trouble with trying to plan our lives is 2-fold. first, its so hard to plan long term because things change so much faster then they used to. and secondly, if you plan something and it doesnt work out, its feels like a failure. now there is absolutely nothing wrong with failing. in fact, i would rather have tried and failed then never to have tried at all. failing helps you learn. failing makes success feel that much better. failing makes you a stronger person. failing teaches you humility. failing sucks!
planning and failing. failing and planning. its a vicious cycle. but a necessary one. i like to plan. just the mere act of planning feels like a success. its the implementation that causes the problems. now that i've taken you away from the message, back we go.
during the past few months we've been warned by many of our leaders to plan for a long war against terrorism. that war started in afghanistan and is now moving to iraq. no doubt it will move to nuclear korea and then who knows where but i'm sure there's a plan for that. during these past few months, its fairly clear that the leaders of our country have been busily making there plans for the future and they seem very ready for either success or failure. my concern is that #1 i'm not prepared, and #2 i don't know how to prepare even if i wanted to get prepared. and now that we are locked and loaded, i think its too late to get prepared.
the warnings have been issued many times. but what am i supposed to do? how do i plan for the next world war? so far i've tried to basically do what i did before i knew that there was an "axis of evil". when the cold war ended i thought the world was at peace. globalization was bringing the world closer together and most governments saw the virtues of free-enterprise and democracy. and now this. i have no plan and i am unprepared. i am not ready! i guess the good part about that is i cant fail at something i did not plan. so i'll just hope it works out the way they say it will.
have a grateful day!
larry TGB
what have you done to prepare for the future? some people set goals. some people make new year resolutions. some people make "to do" lists. some people write business plans. some people even make a budget. others just 'wing it' and decide what to do when they have to. researchers have found that people spend more time planning there next vacation than they do planning for their future.
trouble with trying to plan our lives is 2-fold. first, its so hard to plan long term because things change so much faster then they used to. and secondly, if you plan something and it doesnt work out, its feels like a failure. now there is absolutely nothing wrong with failing. in fact, i would rather have tried and failed then never to have tried at all. failing helps you learn. failing makes success feel that much better. failing makes you a stronger person. failing teaches you humility. failing sucks!
planning and failing. failing and planning. its a vicious cycle. but a necessary one. i like to plan. just the mere act of planning feels like a success. its the implementation that causes the problems. now that i've taken you away from the message, back we go.
during the past few months we've been warned by many of our leaders to plan for a long war against terrorism. that war started in afghanistan and is now moving to iraq. no doubt it will move to nuclear korea and then who knows where but i'm sure there's a plan for that. during these past few months, its fairly clear that the leaders of our country have been busily making there plans for the future and they seem very ready for either success or failure. my concern is that #1 i'm not prepared, and #2 i don't know how to prepare even if i wanted to get prepared. and now that we are locked and loaded, i think its too late to get prepared.
the warnings have been issued many times. but what am i supposed to do? how do i plan for the next world war? so far i've tried to basically do what i did before i knew that there was an "axis of evil". when the cold war ended i thought the world was at peace. globalization was bringing the world closer together and most governments saw the virtues of free-enterprise and democracy. and now this. i have no plan and i am unprepared. i am not ready! i guess the good part about that is i cant fail at something i did not plan. so i'll just hope it works out the way they say it will.
have a grateful day!
larry TGB
Thursday, January 23, 2003
HOLIDAY CHEER turns into WAR FEAR
back to where we started after the second best yearly start for stocks EVER. it seemed like things were on there way to getting better. with the worst holiday selling season in 30 years and the completion of a three-peat for the stock market behind us, the bets were placed for a change of the pattern and a new outlook. the president unveiled a tax cut package for the rich and the poor, the war plans seemed to be panning out nicely, historical comparisons looked favorable and startegists put there portfolio managers at ease to put there capital to work for the new year. unfortunately, reality bit into the picture and now we are facing some risks that seem to hard to ignore.
aside from the war fears that are obvious and ominous, most companies that have reported there 2002 year-end reports have either not given guidance or have made vague statements that they were 'cautiously optimistic' about their business prospects for 2003. in addition to not being able to give guidance, almost every company has stated that the potential for war with iraq has left them with forecasts that would need to be changed if the war were to be anything like a 'real' war. add to that the uncertain effects of the longterm bear market on assets values, investment enthusiasm, business outlooks, and consumer spending and you have an incredibly dangerous mix of risk that has yet to play out.
we now face a weekend to rest and relax with our families and friends and to contemplate what will happen next week when the UN inspectors give their update and the president gives his second state of the union address. with this weeks rhetoric from the administration at a fever pitch, there is not much doubt that mr. bush will officially declare war on iraq and send in US troops over the next few days or weeks. it will be a sad time for our country and probably be fairly negative for the rest of the world.
whatever the outcome, and i am confident we will be victorious, at least militarily, the consequences for our country's actions will be profound and longlasting. the world is constantly changing and for the most part, that is a good thing. yet for the near and intermediate term, the uncertainties will be overwhelming. this will be looked back on in the history books as a dawn of a new era as well as a new world order. we are a part of that history and i hope it reads well.
have a grateful day!
larry
back to where we started after the second best yearly start for stocks EVER. it seemed like things were on there way to getting better. with the worst holiday selling season in 30 years and the completion of a three-peat for the stock market behind us, the bets were placed for a change of the pattern and a new outlook. the president unveiled a tax cut package for the rich and the poor, the war plans seemed to be panning out nicely, historical comparisons looked favorable and startegists put there portfolio managers at ease to put there capital to work for the new year. unfortunately, reality bit into the picture and now we are facing some risks that seem to hard to ignore.
aside from the war fears that are obvious and ominous, most companies that have reported there 2002 year-end reports have either not given guidance or have made vague statements that they were 'cautiously optimistic' about their business prospects for 2003. in addition to not being able to give guidance, almost every company has stated that the potential for war with iraq has left them with forecasts that would need to be changed if the war were to be anything like a 'real' war. add to that the uncertain effects of the longterm bear market on assets values, investment enthusiasm, business outlooks, and consumer spending and you have an incredibly dangerous mix of risk that has yet to play out.
we now face a weekend to rest and relax with our families and friends and to contemplate what will happen next week when the UN inspectors give their update and the president gives his second state of the union address. with this weeks rhetoric from the administration at a fever pitch, there is not much doubt that mr. bush will officially declare war on iraq and send in US troops over the next few days or weeks. it will be a sad time for our country and probably be fairly negative for the rest of the world.
whatever the outcome, and i am confident we will be victorious, at least militarily, the consequences for our country's actions will be profound and longlasting. the world is constantly changing and for the most part, that is a good thing. yet for the near and intermediate term, the uncertainties will be overwhelming. this will be looked back on in the history books as a dawn of a new era as well as a new world order. we are a part of that history and i hope it reads well.
have a grateful day!
larry
Wednesday, January 22, 2003
BETWEEN a Bush & AROCK
its almost a year since president bush called out saddam hussein to the schoolyard for a fight. at first it seemed very confusing. why iraq? why saddam hussein? on the heels of the september 11th attack on the united states by osama bin laden's 'troops', most of whom came from saudi arabia, why would he name an "axis of evil" that didnt include either one of those perpetrators? so, after launching a blitzkreig type assualt on afghanistan and occupying the country, mr. bush came out this summer on the real threat...iraq!?
in a well orchestrated campaign to paint saddam hussein as the dr. evil of the 21st century, he began a program to force a regime change in a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 and hasnt made any problems for us since the 1991 gulf war. regardless of the details, we are now on the verge of...with or without the support of the rest of the world, a serious world changing conflict. we have been told by our leader that iraq's leader is evil and poses serious threats to us and the rest of the world. the rest of the world doesnt seem to feel so strongly about it, but take his word for it, he is a 'bad guy' who wants to do harm to you.
now that we have a motive and our troops are ready to go, all thats left is for president bush to say 'go'. that will be when all the predictions and forecasts for what will happen go out the window and the real chaos starts. just imagine the news coverage of this conflict. forget "the bachelor" or "meet the parents" or even "american idol", ratings on this war will be great. i think the only reason he's waiting for the state of the union address is so that the war doesnt pre-empt the super bowl!
i dont mean to be so calous about a war that i beleive will see more U.S. casualties then the vietnam war, but what are we doing messing around in a part of the world where most sentiment towards the U.S. and its efforts is well, not very sentimental. if we cant convince the arabs to take saddam out of power, then why are we willing to stir this hornets nest? the administration claims its got nothing to do with the OIL, yet there are much more serious and immediate issues to resolve in nuclear korea and even in venezuela. so why send 150,000 troops halfway around the world to attack a country that has allowed UN inspectors back in and is at least verbally complying with almost all our demands? i dont know the answer and i am very fearful of the consequences of our actions.
could it be that bush thinks this battle will help the economy? 1991 proved that just winning a war doesnt guarantee re-election, so that is the only thing i can think of because if saddam acts 1/2 as badly as he did in 1991, we are in for a hell of a time over there. during our great victory, iraq launched some 40 scud missles at israel, they pillaged kuwaits' riches and destroyed property. and after we pushed the iraqi army out of kuwait, they blew up 600 oil wells in the dessert of kuwait causing an economic and enviromental disaster. and that was just for sending them back home. what will happen when we go after their territory and try to take out saddam? all i know is that the predictions being made now will prove to be wrong and he will do something that is unexpected. hopefully he will heed mr. bush's warning not to use nukes or chemicals but why should he bother listening if he is going to be destroyed. might as well go out with a bang...no pun inteneded!
and if anything like that does happen, it surely wont help our economy.
this is way too scary for even me to keep writing about so i'll stop now and wait for a more reasonable outcome.
have a grateful day!
larry
its almost a year since president bush called out saddam hussein to the schoolyard for a fight. at first it seemed very confusing. why iraq? why saddam hussein? on the heels of the september 11th attack on the united states by osama bin laden's 'troops', most of whom came from saudi arabia, why would he name an "axis of evil" that didnt include either one of those perpetrators? so, after launching a blitzkreig type assualt on afghanistan and occupying the country, mr. bush came out this summer on the real threat...iraq!?
in a well orchestrated campaign to paint saddam hussein as the dr. evil of the 21st century, he began a program to force a regime change in a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 and hasnt made any problems for us since the 1991 gulf war. regardless of the details, we are now on the verge of...with or without the support of the rest of the world, a serious world changing conflict. we have been told by our leader that iraq's leader is evil and poses serious threats to us and the rest of the world. the rest of the world doesnt seem to feel so strongly about it, but take his word for it, he is a 'bad guy' who wants to do harm to you.
now that we have a motive and our troops are ready to go, all thats left is for president bush to say 'go'. that will be when all the predictions and forecasts for what will happen go out the window and the real chaos starts. just imagine the news coverage of this conflict. forget "the bachelor" or "meet the parents" or even "american idol", ratings on this war will be great. i think the only reason he's waiting for the state of the union address is so that the war doesnt pre-empt the super bowl!
i dont mean to be so calous about a war that i beleive will see more U.S. casualties then the vietnam war, but what are we doing messing around in a part of the world where most sentiment towards the U.S. and its efforts is well, not very sentimental. if we cant convince the arabs to take saddam out of power, then why are we willing to stir this hornets nest? the administration claims its got nothing to do with the OIL, yet there are much more serious and immediate issues to resolve in nuclear korea and even in venezuela. so why send 150,000 troops halfway around the world to attack a country that has allowed UN inspectors back in and is at least verbally complying with almost all our demands? i dont know the answer and i am very fearful of the consequences of our actions.
could it be that bush thinks this battle will help the economy? 1991 proved that just winning a war doesnt guarantee re-election, so that is the only thing i can think of because if saddam acts 1/2 as badly as he did in 1991, we are in for a hell of a time over there. during our great victory, iraq launched some 40 scud missles at israel, they pillaged kuwaits' riches and destroyed property. and after we pushed the iraqi army out of kuwait, they blew up 600 oil wells in the dessert of kuwait causing an economic and enviromental disaster. and that was just for sending them back home. what will happen when we go after their territory and try to take out saddam? all i know is that the predictions being made now will prove to be wrong and he will do something that is unexpected. hopefully he will heed mr. bush's warning not to use nukes or chemicals but why should he bother listening if he is going to be destroyed. might as well go out with a bang...no pun inteneded!
and if anything like that does happen, it surely wont help our economy.
this is way too scary for even me to keep writing about so i'll stop now and wait for a more reasonable outcome.
have a grateful day!
larry
Tuesday, January 21, 2003
WHAT WILL OUR SACRIFICE BE?
WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely NOTHING...so the song goes. since the last state of the union address by president bush we have been set on a course of conflict. we have been told repeatedly that this war is a 'just war', a war that is our duty to embark on in order to protect the future. OK, what if i subscribe to that. what do i need to do? what will it cost me? what will the consequences to me and my family be? or is it just like a storm in the arctic that is in the news but has no effect on me? if a tree falls in the woods does it make a noise? if there is a war in the middle-east does it have an effect on me?
the way its being presented to the american people, it doesnt. in fact, with each bluster from our leaders, they also remind us to go out and live our lives. travel, shop, invest and go about your merry way. we, your leaders, will handle the war and you handle the economy. no sacrifice, no consequences, no problem!
seems to me that cant be the reality. in every war throughout world history, there are bad things that happen and unforeseen outcomes. we are being promised a quick and decisive battle to defeat and overthrow saddam hussein. we are being told that the oil will be protected and there will be no disruptions. we are confident that other nations wont get involved and that the arabs will support our efforts. we are being told lots of things except what might go wrong and what we will do if things do go wrong. there must be some sort of sacrifice that all americans will need to make in order to follow through with this 'just war'. we will find out sooner or later so why not discuss it with us now instead of when its too late?
to sell this war like a weather report rather than a world changing event is deceptive and dishonest. our government is going to great lengths to mollify the public in order to proceed on a course they set for themselves. polls show that they have pretty good support but thats because they arent telling us what it will cost us. and be sure, there is a cost to every war...and its not just the cost of the bombs.
have grateful day!
larry
WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely NOTHING...so the song goes. since the last state of the union address by president bush we have been set on a course of conflict. we have been told repeatedly that this war is a 'just war', a war that is our duty to embark on in order to protect the future. OK, what if i subscribe to that. what do i need to do? what will it cost me? what will the consequences to me and my family be? or is it just like a storm in the arctic that is in the news but has no effect on me? if a tree falls in the woods does it make a noise? if there is a war in the middle-east does it have an effect on me?
the way its being presented to the american people, it doesnt. in fact, with each bluster from our leaders, they also remind us to go out and live our lives. travel, shop, invest and go about your merry way. we, your leaders, will handle the war and you handle the economy. no sacrifice, no consequences, no problem!
seems to me that cant be the reality. in every war throughout world history, there are bad things that happen and unforeseen outcomes. we are being promised a quick and decisive battle to defeat and overthrow saddam hussein. we are being told that the oil will be protected and there will be no disruptions. we are confident that other nations wont get involved and that the arabs will support our efforts. we are being told lots of things except what might go wrong and what we will do if things do go wrong. there must be some sort of sacrifice that all americans will need to make in order to follow through with this 'just war'. we will find out sooner or later so why not discuss it with us now instead of when its too late?
to sell this war like a weather report rather than a world changing event is deceptive and dishonest. our government is going to great lengths to mollify the public in order to proceed on a course they set for themselves. polls show that they have pretty good support but thats because they arent telling us what it will cost us. and be sure, there is a cost to every war...and its not just the cost of the bombs.
have grateful day!
larry
George "double-dip" Bush
in a bold attempt to prevent an early departure from the oval office, george 'dubya' bush, soon to be known as george'double-dip' bush, has presented the nation with a fiscal growth plan, better known as a tax cut for everyone, that will, according to all white house advisors(who want to keep their jobs), fix our slow economic recovery. outside the tight circle surrounding mr. bush, there remains many questions regarding the headline grabbing $674billion package and its ability to create economic stimulation.
over the past few days, new economic data released suggest that the so called 'soft patch' that the economy entered after the summer is somewhat more than a 'patch'. in fact, except for the ISM reading being better than expected and just slightly over the break-even point, all the other economic data has shown that the economy is still in the 'soft patch'. and after 3 months or so, the patch may turn into, well, a dropcloth! if this continues, it would undoubtedly turn into at least one down quarter for GDP. that of course would put forth the possibility of a 2nd down quarter. if that were to happen we would enter the dreaded 'double-dip' zone.
not many forecasters are calling for a double dip recession, but as the data continues to flow, there seems to be some evidence that we are headed for another slowdown after bouncing in the 3rd quarter 2002. the question is will it be bad enough to be worse than the last dip or is it just a 'soft patch' that the economy is working its way through? with the help of the last FED rate cut and the presidents 'talking up the market' with his tax plan speech many beleive that growth is upon us.
the stock market seems to be a believer. so far, 2003 has been a banner year. all indices are rallying in advance of the war and the passage of the tax pkg and is looking forward to earnings rebounding and many of the other problems being resolved favorably. alot to ask for no doubt, but many believe that the odds are in there favor after such a prolonged bear market. over the past few months the only thing that has gotten better is stock prices. venezuela has gotten much worse causing additional problems for oil, nuclear korea has lit up its plutonium factory, osama and his gang are still at large, and our economy needs another stimulus pkg to keep us spending. as much as our leaders want us to believe we are 'the strongest most resilient economy in the world' it just doesnt feel that way.
many hang there forecasts on 'hope' and assumptions of favorable outcomes for all the problems that are still present. unfortunately, hope and positive thinking may not be enough to hold things together.
have a grateful day
larry
in a bold attempt to prevent an early departure from the oval office, george 'dubya' bush, soon to be known as george'double-dip' bush, has presented the nation with a fiscal growth plan, better known as a tax cut for everyone, that will, according to all white house advisors(who want to keep their jobs), fix our slow economic recovery. outside the tight circle surrounding mr. bush, there remains many questions regarding the headline grabbing $674billion package and its ability to create economic stimulation.
over the past few days, new economic data released suggest that the so called 'soft patch' that the economy entered after the summer is somewhat more than a 'patch'. in fact, except for the ISM reading being better than expected and just slightly over the break-even point, all the other economic data has shown that the economy is still in the 'soft patch'. and after 3 months or so, the patch may turn into, well, a dropcloth! if this continues, it would undoubtedly turn into at least one down quarter for GDP. that of course would put forth the possibility of a 2nd down quarter. if that were to happen we would enter the dreaded 'double-dip' zone.
not many forecasters are calling for a double dip recession, but as the data continues to flow, there seems to be some evidence that we are headed for another slowdown after bouncing in the 3rd quarter 2002. the question is will it be bad enough to be worse than the last dip or is it just a 'soft patch' that the economy is working its way through? with the help of the last FED rate cut and the presidents 'talking up the market' with his tax plan speech many beleive that growth is upon us.
the stock market seems to be a believer. so far, 2003 has been a banner year. all indices are rallying in advance of the war and the passage of the tax pkg and is looking forward to earnings rebounding and many of the other problems being resolved favorably. alot to ask for no doubt, but many believe that the odds are in there favor after such a prolonged bear market. over the past few months the only thing that has gotten better is stock prices. venezuela has gotten much worse causing additional problems for oil, nuclear korea has lit up its plutonium factory, osama and his gang are still at large, and our economy needs another stimulus pkg to keep us spending. as much as our leaders want us to believe we are 'the strongest most resilient economy in the world' it just doesnt feel that way.
many hang there forecasts on 'hope' and assumptions of favorable outcomes for all the problems that are still present. unfortunately, hope and positive thinking may not be enough to hold things together.
have a grateful day
larry
THIS IS NOT YOUR GREAT-GRANDFATHERS GREAT DEPRESSION
the comparisons have all been made. our present situation has been disected and analyzed from every vantage and data point and the results are in. the current economic and geo-political situation is not really like any one previous time but has some characteristics of many previous times. the comps would be 1990-91, 1980-81, 1973-74, 1939-41, and 1929-1932, woops, that ones not a comp! at least thats what they want us to believe. low inflation, high productivity, low unemployment, low interest rates, accomodative fiscal and monetary policies, and unwaverring strength and resilience are what will all but ensure an economic revival of 1990's preportion. or maybe not. and just maybe we are at the beginning of what could prove to be the "2nd great depression"?
i know its not very patriotic, but as hard as they try to convince us that the economy is fundamentally sound and that we have an economic system that is to strong to fail, too many things are too uncertain and based on lots of hope and optimism. in fact, as our leaders continue to talk up our strengths and minimize our weaknesses, they still see the need for additional measures to keep our situation from getting dramatically worse.
now i'm not predicting 25% unemployment or uncontrollable deflation. what i am suggesting is that just maybe things have gotten out of reach of our normal parameters and thus normal efforts will not be able to rectify what ailes our economy and more importantly the world's geo-political stability. yeah, it sounds pretty nuts and most of us dont really understand what the consequences could be, but suffice to say they wont be good. some proof of that is the way things feel now; economically and politically, even while we are told everything is ok and is about to get better. it sure doesnt feel that way to me. in fact, things feel pretty lousy for a so called muted/jobless/profitless recovery. i know many realtives and friends who are financially unhappy and unsure about the future. i know as many clients who voice the same sentiment. realization seems to be setting in, which will not help things. as people come to terms with the new world order and the actual economic problems, future prospects darken and fear sets in. people are retrenching and trying to become comfortable in there present situation which may create even further economic malaise.
boom to bust to recession to muted recovery to...i'm not sure anybody can predict whats next but to believe that we can fiscally or monetarily manipulate our country through this increasingly uncertain period in our history is just way too optimistic.
that brings me to the catchy title of this rant. could it be possible that we are at the beginning of the 2nd great depression? i know we are not like japan. i know we are not in a housing bubble. i know we are the strongest most resilient country in the world. i know all those catchy sound bites that put us all at ease and keep us going to the malls and refinancing our homes. we are being brainwashed to some degree. the more a lie is told the more you believe it. be weary of the messenger and be careful what you do with the information. it may not be true and if its not then what will you do when you find out? dont blame the messenger of this or any other message for things that you chose to ignore or believe.
if this does prove to be an economic period of no growth or down growth and it produces the negative consequences of previous depressionary periods, then we all may need to change what we do and how we live. as most of us, including myself, find change very difficult, if not impossible, those who act first and decisivley may be able to get in front of the devastation and prepare to deal with economic and financial calamity that will go on all around us.
as you can see by my first posting, i have a kind of negative view of things right now and i dont have a problem expressing those views. i do believe that there is a benefit to looking for the negatives, identifying the causes and trying to prepare and benefit for the positives that will come from that negative situation. i will try to be balanced in my views and i will try to give helpful ideas for dealing with the reality of whatever is going on.
have a grateful day!
regards
larry TGB
the comparisons have all been made. our present situation has been disected and analyzed from every vantage and data point and the results are in. the current economic and geo-political situation is not really like any one previous time but has some characteristics of many previous times. the comps would be 1990-91, 1980-81, 1973-74, 1939-41, and 1929-1932, woops, that ones not a comp! at least thats what they want us to believe. low inflation, high productivity, low unemployment, low interest rates, accomodative fiscal and monetary policies, and unwaverring strength and resilience are what will all but ensure an economic revival of 1990's preportion. or maybe not. and just maybe we are at the beginning of what could prove to be the "2nd great depression"?
i know its not very patriotic, but as hard as they try to convince us that the economy is fundamentally sound and that we have an economic system that is to strong to fail, too many things are too uncertain and based on lots of hope and optimism. in fact, as our leaders continue to talk up our strengths and minimize our weaknesses, they still see the need for additional measures to keep our situation from getting dramatically worse.
now i'm not predicting 25% unemployment or uncontrollable deflation. what i am suggesting is that just maybe things have gotten out of reach of our normal parameters and thus normal efforts will not be able to rectify what ailes our economy and more importantly the world's geo-political stability. yeah, it sounds pretty nuts and most of us dont really understand what the consequences could be, but suffice to say they wont be good. some proof of that is the way things feel now; economically and politically, even while we are told everything is ok and is about to get better. it sure doesnt feel that way to me. in fact, things feel pretty lousy for a so called muted/jobless/profitless recovery. i know many realtives and friends who are financially unhappy and unsure about the future. i know as many clients who voice the same sentiment. realization seems to be setting in, which will not help things. as people come to terms with the new world order and the actual economic problems, future prospects darken and fear sets in. people are retrenching and trying to become comfortable in there present situation which may create even further economic malaise.
boom to bust to recession to muted recovery to...i'm not sure anybody can predict whats next but to believe that we can fiscally or monetarily manipulate our country through this increasingly uncertain period in our history is just way too optimistic.
that brings me to the catchy title of this rant. could it be possible that we are at the beginning of the 2nd great depression? i know we are not like japan. i know we are not in a housing bubble. i know we are the strongest most resilient country in the world. i know all those catchy sound bites that put us all at ease and keep us going to the malls and refinancing our homes. we are being brainwashed to some degree. the more a lie is told the more you believe it. be weary of the messenger and be careful what you do with the information. it may not be true and if its not then what will you do when you find out? dont blame the messenger of this or any other message for things that you chose to ignore or believe.
if this does prove to be an economic period of no growth or down growth and it produces the negative consequences of previous depressionary periods, then we all may need to change what we do and how we live. as most of us, including myself, find change very difficult, if not impossible, those who act first and decisivley may be able to get in front of the devastation and prepare to deal with economic and financial calamity that will go on all around us.
as you can see by my first posting, i have a kind of negative view of things right now and i dont have a problem expressing those views. i do believe that there is a benefit to looking for the negatives, identifying the causes and trying to prepare and benefit for the positives that will come from that negative situation. i will try to be balanced in my views and i will try to give helpful ideas for dealing with the reality of whatever is going on.
have a grateful day!
regards
larry TGB
ladies and gentleman, presenting the grateful bear and my views on lots of things financial and non-financial that could effect how we live. being that i have never been much of a writter or reader, i will do my best to express my thoughts in a conversational way so as to not bore you or me. i truely hope my readers can gleen some helpful information or insights from my writtings, sometimes reffered to as rants. i will try to be current as well as timely with my scribbles, yet since i am one of the lucky ones to still be employed in the brokerage industry, sometimes trading will take precedence to writting in this space. nonetheless, i will try and i hope it will be fun for me and you. that being said, welcome to my blog and here goes>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>