Bottom fishing...

Searching for the right price, valuation, multiple of current &/or future earnings power, is hard. Usually, the reason for this is that all the relevant information in order to properly value assets or businesses is not always available, easily obtainable, or understandable...and because the information & data are always changing. In my estimation, the information & data we do do not know is more negative than positive & it is most likely changing for the worse not better.

All the talk regarding the "bottom" is rather misguided & misleading. Misguided because a bottom cannot be called until circumstances stop deteriorating... which has not happened.

Misleading because once that happens or is predicted, a bounce back is not warranted or gauranteed.

In general, the "bottom", when it is eventually hit, will be nothing more than the new perception of fair value of the earnings power of individual companies & the overall market.

This "bottom", new fair value, will be predicated & determined by what corporate mngts, analysts, & institutional investors, swf's, big private investment pool mngrs, hedge funds, etc... forecast, predict, & believe future revenues & earnings will be... in 2009 & beyond.

As we make our way into the 2nd half of 2008, it is getting harder to see clearly into early 2009...with the ongoing financial deleveraging & more big losses in the pipeline, the clear economic weakness which is now throughout the economy...it spread... how-zing...which was well contained over a year ago (wasn't) & has methodically spread & morphed into an economic wreaking ball & bulldozer...knocking down every ancliary business & others too...

Mortgage lenders to the banks to financials to insurers to to the professionals lawyers, accountants, bankers, brokers, capital creators, etc... now the general economy is being starved & suffocated from its credit & consumption engine. that seems to be (will) intensifying...

Borrowing rates for businesses & consumers are the highest in years even while fed has lowered rates & flooded the system with money, like never before yet banks are tightening, CC cos are tightening & lowering lines, banks are cutting heloc's, refis are frozen, auto cos tightening credit, etc.

Consumer is in flux facing high energy & food costs + decreased purchasing power due to general inflation & tighter credit enviroment.

With that as the situation for when the market or economy reach the proverbial bottom, new fair value, we will then need to see if the early part of 2009 forward will bring economic strengthening.

From there the mkt & economy can either rise, flatten out, or fall more. Determining the bottom, new fair value, is reliant on what happens next... that's the hard part & what makes calling the bottom so difficult & elusive. Especially with so much risk & uncertainty facing the economy & the market.