Any Chance He Spelled It Wrong??
With the recent "revelations" about Iran assisting, aiding & abetting 8 of the 19 Saudi Arabian Al-Qaida participants who attacked the U.S. on 9/11, it makes one think that maybe President Bush not only can't speak very well, but maybe he can't spell very well either. If by some chance, in his instructions to his cabinet members, he misspelled Iran, that could explain why we attacked Iraq, even though they had nothing to do with 9/11, Al-Qaida, or WMD's. Iran, it seems, is the country that has links to Al-Qaida, helped the 9/11 attackers, and has WMD's!!
So, the question begs, why did we attack and invade Iraq, when Iran did the dirty deeds?!?!?
N, Q, what's in a letter. Bet Bush didn't know who was who and just mixed the 2 up by accident. Oh well. No harm no foul, Iraq was on the list of nations to attack, what's the difference who we attacked first. Won't really matter as it smells like Iran is next on the Bush hit list to throw the Axis of Evil off balance and win the War on Terror.
Just something else to think about as we head to the polls this November.
Friday, July 23, 2004
Friday, July 09, 2004
WHY ARE WE AT WAR?
Today, a bipartisan Senate committee released the first part of a report on the intelligence information used to build the case for the War in Iraq. The report says that "The key U.S. assertions leading to the 2003 invasion of Iraq - that Saddam Hussein had chemical and biological weapons and was working to make nuclear weapons - were wrong and based on false or overstated CIA analyses". The committee's ranking Democrat, Sen. Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, said: "Tragically, the intelligence failures set forth in this report will affect our national security for generations to come. Our credibility is diminished. Our standing in the world has never been lower. We have fostered a deep hatred of Americans in the Muslim world, and that will grow. As a direct consequence, our nation is more vulnerable today than ever before."
In reaction to the report, President Bush, at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania acknowledged that the Senate report on U.S. intelligence on Iraq before the war "is quite critical" but stuck to his central point that toppling Saddam Hussein was still the right thing to do. Bush conceded the fundamental conclusion of the report but indicated he was misled by the intelligence agencies as were others. "I will remind you there have been some failures" in the intelligence agencies", Bush told a gathering of supporters. When President Bush was asked about the report in question and answer session at a rally, he replied by saying, "Listen, we thought there would be stockpiles of weapons. I thought so, the congress thought so, the U.N. thought so,".
The president's comments fly in the face of remarks made just a few days ago by White House spokesman Scott McClellan who said such stockpiles could still be found.
Despite the fact the report said Iraq didn't have weapons of mass destruction, Bush insisted that invading Iraq was still the right thing to do.
"I'll tell you what we do know, Saddam Hussein had the capacity to make weapons. He had the ability to make them, he had the intent. We knew he hated America," Bush said. "The world is better off without Saddam Hussein."
Bush said he plans to use the conclusions of the report as a basis for implementing reforms of the U.S. intelligence agencies.
"One of the key ingredients to winning the war on terror is to make sure the intelligence agencies provide the best possible intelligence to the executive branch as well as to the legislative branch," Bush said.
"We need to know. I want to know how to make the agencies better to make sure we are better able to gather the information necessary to protect the American people," he added.
Clearly, The Bush Administrations response to the report was to restate their "new and improved" reasons for the War in Iraq, "to free the Iraqi people and democratize the Middle East". Which, now that they haven't found WMD's and there is no link to Al-Qaida, and the scare tactics used to march the country to war have been proven to be deceptions based on false information, seems as good a reason as any, and hard to argue with if you are a good and moral person. Pretty reasonable to want to spread democracy and hard to argue that Saddam was a bad guy, so, lets go with it.
Whatever your political persuasion, you cannot be happy or proud that the government of your country manipulated bad information to justify an invasion of a sovereign nation halfway around the world putting our soldiers, domestic security, and financial stability in severe jeopardy. Patriotism aside, the War in Iraq is a fraud against the American people. We were convinced by the Bush Administration that the War was necessary and just. We were told that if we didn't invade Iraq and dethrown Saddam Hussien, our country would be in jeopardy of another 9/11 type attack on our homeland. We were pounded relentlessly by the President and all his cabinet secretaries, that without a full fledged War in Iraq, we would not be doing our moral duty to protect our citizens and the rest of the world.
In hindsight, that was all a bunch of blather used to justify the covert goals of President Bush and his team in the White House. Maybe one day we will know the "real" reasons that they wanted to invade Iraq. Some reasons seem sort of obvious. Maybe to secure the 2nd largest oil reserve in the world. Maybe to spur the economy with an expensive war and reconstruction project that would help all his constituents. Maybe to secure a foothold in the most strategically important region in the world. Maybe to revenge his daddy's assassination attempt. Maybe to just plain make himself relevant. Maybe one day we will know?
Today, a bipartisan Senate committee released the first part of a report on the intelligence information used to build the case for the War in Iraq. The report says that "The key U.S. assertions leading to the 2003 invasion of Iraq - that Saddam Hussein had chemical and biological weapons and was working to make nuclear weapons - were wrong and based on false or overstated CIA analyses". The committee's ranking Democrat, Sen. Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, said: "Tragically, the intelligence failures set forth in this report will affect our national security for generations to come. Our credibility is diminished. Our standing in the world has never been lower. We have fostered a deep hatred of Americans in the Muslim world, and that will grow. As a direct consequence, our nation is more vulnerable today than ever before."
In reaction to the report, President Bush, at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania acknowledged that the Senate report on U.S. intelligence on Iraq before the war "is quite critical" but stuck to his central point that toppling Saddam Hussein was still the right thing to do. Bush conceded the fundamental conclusion of the report but indicated he was misled by the intelligence agencies as were others. "I will remind you there have been some failures" in the intelligence agencies", Bush told a gathering of supporters. When President Bush was asked about the report in question and answer session at a rally, he replied by saying, "Listen, we thought there would be stockpiles of weapons. I thought so, the congress thought so, the U.N. thought so,".
The president's comments fly in the face of remarks made just a few days ago by White House spokesman Scott McClellan who said such stockpiles could still be found.
Despite the fact the report said Iraq didn't have weapons of mass destruction, Bush insisted that invading Iraq was still the right thing to do.
"I'll tell you what we do know, Saddam Hussein had the capacity to make weapons. He had the ability to make them, he had the intent. We knew he hated America," Bush said. "The world is better off without Saddam Hussein."
Bush said he plans to use the conclusions of the report as a basis for implementing reforms of the U.S. intelligence agencies.
"One of the key ingredients to winning the war on terror is to make sure the intelligence agencies provide the best possible intelligence to the executive branch as well as to the legislative branch," Bush said.
"We need to know. I want to know how to make the agencies better to make sure we are better able to gather the information necessary to protect the American people," he added.
Clearly, The Bush Administrations response to the report was to restate their "new and improved" reasons for the War in Iraq, "to free the Iraqi people and democratize the Middle East". Which, now that they haven't found WMD's and there is no link to Al-Qaida, and the scare tactics used to march the country to war have been proven to be deceptions based on false information, seems as good a reason as any, and hard to argue with if you are a good and moral person. Pretty reasonable to want to spread democracy and hard to argue that Saddam was a bad guy, so, lets go with it.
Whatever your political persuasion, you cannot be happy or proud that the government of your country manipulated bad information to justify an invasion of a sovereign nation halfway around the world putting our soldiers, domestic security, and financial stability in severe jeopardy. Patriotism aside, the War in Iraq is a fraud against the American people. We were convinced by the Bush Administration that the War was necessary and just. We were told that if we didn't invade Iraq and dethrown Saddam Hussien, our country would be in jeopardy of another 9/11 type attack on our homeland. We were pounded relentlessly by the President and all his cabinet secretaries, that without a full fledged War in Iraq, we would not be doing our moral duty to protect our citizens and the rest of the world.
In hindsight, that was all a bunch of blather used to justify the covert goals of President Bush and his team in the White House. Maybe one day we will know the "real" reasons that they wanted to invade Iraq. Some reasons seem sort of obvious. Maybe to secure the 2nd largest oil reserve in the world. Maybe to spur the economy with an expensive war and reconstruction project that would help all his constituents. Maybe to secure a foothold in the most strategically important region in the world. Maybe to revenge his daddy's assassination attempt. Maybe to just plain make himself relevant. Maybe one day we will know?
Thursday, July 01, 2004
The Temperature Is Rising
Fahrenheit 9/11 is creating a tremendous amount of controversy, which is exactly what its creator, Michael Moore, intended. It will be the first movie of its kind that will become mainstream and will probably be the biggest money grossing documentary ever, along with the most widely viewed and distributed. In fact, I would not be surprised if it becomes the highest grossing film of the year, which in my opinion, would be a very good thing for our country and our democracy.
The movie is undoubtedly politically motivated and biased, yet it is factual. Michael Moore has decided to highlight the well known, as well as not so well known, information (factual & documented) about President Bush and his administration that many Americans either don't know or have been willing to ignore. Yet, after viewing the movie, its hard to deny the facts about President Bush and his administration. And, to be fair, it also shows alot about how the political process operates and is controlled by the rich and powerful. The movie highlights lots of what is wrong with the US political system and what is wrong within our society. And thats not partisan, it is unfortunately, very American, very bipartisan, and it clearly needs to be examined and changed.
Marines protecting oil workers get paid $40,000/year while Halliburton employees they are protecting earn $100,000/year. Soldiers get recruited from poor and run down neighborhoods in order to be sent to war to protect the priveleged. Troops don't know what they are fighting and killing people for and are having their lives changed permenantly for a cause that is unclear. Huge amounts of money are being spent in other countries to wage war and rebuild the embattled cities, when there is critical need for resources in the homeland. Our political system seems to operate with impunity and very few checks and balances, when that is what the system is supposed to be founded upon. These and other problems are highlighted throughout the movie, yet the main focus of debate is the political attack on President Bush.
Yes Michael Moore highlights how stupid and foolish President Bush is. Yes Michael Moore points out how much he relies on his advisors. Yes Michael Moore shows how much time he spends fishing, golfing, skeet shooting, and not being very Presidential. And yes Michael Moore points out all the cronyism within the Bush administration. But thats not Michael Moores fault, its President Bushs' fault. If the President wants to project a better image than he should read more, take an English course, have more 'unrelated' advisors & cabinet members, and spend more time being a President than a sportsman. Don't blame Michael Moore for showing you how the President acts or spends his time, blame the President.
I think what bothers us most about Fahrenheit 9/11 is the portrayal of the President who we as a country 'elected'. Therefore we are responsible for him being in power and that is a very poor reflection on us personally. It bothers us that we hired this guy and we haven't fired him yet, even though he is a stupid loaf and is doing a very bad job. Forget that he marched us to War under false pretense. Nothing Michael Moore has done makes Bush act the way he does. Moore just shows it to us in a clear and unflattering way. I am not sure it can be shown in anything other than an unflattering way. Bush is just plain embarrassing. If that was your child or husband, would you be proud? I wouldn't be.
What is the most alarming about the movie is the horror of the War that now seems based on a deception of the American people and Congress. We were tricked into believing that the War was necessary to protect the US homeland from a nuclear attack. Michael Moore does make some inferrences throughout the movie that are questionable, but nothing that every viewer doesn't think as they watch the movie and/or reflect on the past 2 years. War is ugly and sometimes there is no alternative. This War was not mandatory.
With regards to Iraq, there clearly was no necessity and there were alternatives. Now we as a country are stuck in a very bad situation that was decided upon and created by President Bush. He chose this and we have to live with it, personally and as a country even after he is out of office. It is not affecting him, his family, or his life. And, in fact, it makes his presidency relevant and important. It is actually helping him, his family, and his friends. At the same time it is destroying lives, American credibilty around the world, and financial resources. It is also inciting anti-Americanism around the world, something that could take decades to repair and will have immeasurable consequences, including more terrorism against Americans.
And what does President Bush say about all this..."Bring it on". "We will not leave Iraq until the job is done." "The War on Terror is moral and I must protect the American people." "Fool me once, shame on...uh, you. Fool me twice, shame on uh, ..." When you see the movie you will judge for yourself who is to blame. Michael Moore is certainly not the one to blame for the the last 3 years of the Bush presidency.
Fahrenheit 9/11 is creating a tremendous amount of controversy, which is exactly what its creator, Michael Moore, intended. It will be the first movie of its kind that will become mainstream and will probably be the biggest money grossing documentary ever, along with the most widely viewed and distributed. In fact, I would not be surprised if it becomes the highest grossing film of the year, which in my opinion, would be a very good thing for our country and our democracy.
The movie is undoubtedly politically motivated and biased, yet it is factual. Michael Moore has decided to highlight the well known, as well as not so well known, information (factual & documented) about President Bush and his administration that many Americans either don't know or have been willing to ignore. Yet, after viewing the movie, its hard to deny the facts about President Bush and his administration. And, to be fair, it also shows alot about how the political process operates and is controlled by the rich and powerful. The movie highlights lots of what is wrong with the US political system and what is wrong within our society. And thats not partisan, it is unfortunately, very American, very bipartisan, and it clearly needs to be examined and changed.
Marines protecting oil workers get paid $40,000/year while Halliburton employees they are protecting earn $100,000/year. Soldiers get recruited from poor and run down neighborhoods in order to be sent to war to protect the priveleged. Troops don't know what they are fighting and killing people for and are having their lives changed permenantly for a cause that is unclear. Huge amounts of money are being spent in other countries to wage war and rebuild the embattled cities, when there is critical need for resources in the homeland. Our political system seems to operate with impunity and very few checks and balances, when that is what the system is supposed to be founded upon. These and other problems are highlighted throughout the movie, yet the main focus of debate is the political attack on President Bush.
Yes Michael Moore highlights how stupid and foolish President Bush is. Yes Michael Moore points out how much he relies on his advisors. Yes Michael Moore shows how much time he spends fishing, golfing, skeet shooting, and not being very Presidential. And yes Michael Moore points out all the cronyism within the Bush administration. But thats not Michael Moores fault, its President Bushs' fault. If the President wants to project a better image than he should read more, take an English course, have more 'unrelated' advisors & cabinet members, and spend more time being a President than a sportsman. Don't blame Michael Moore for showing you how the President acts or spends his time, blame the President.
I think what bothers us most about Fahrenheit 9/11 is the portrayal of the President who we as a country 'elected'. Therefore we are responsible for him being in power and that is a very poor reflection on us personally. It bothers us that we hired this guy and we haven't fired him yet, even though he is a stupid loaf and is doing a very bad job. Forget that he marched us to War under false pretense. Nothing Michael Moore has done makes Bush act the way he does. Moore just shows it to us in a clear and unflattering way. I am not sure it can be shown in anything other than an unflattering way. Bush is just plain embarrassing. If that was your child or husband, would you be proud? I wouldn't be.
What is the most alarming about the movie is the horror of the War that now seems based on a deception of the American people and Congress. We were tricked into believing that the War was necessary to protect the US homeland from a nuclear attack. Michael Moore does make some inferrences throughout the movie that are questionable, but nothing that every viewer doesn't think as they watch the movie and/or reflect on the past 2 years. War is ugly and sometimes there is no alternative. This War was not mandatory.
With regards to Iraq, there clearly was no necessity and there were alternatives. Now we as a country are stuck in a very bad situation that was decided upon and created by President Bush. He chose this and we have to live with it, personally and as a country even after he is out of office. It is not affecting him, his family, or his life. And, in fact, it makes his presidency relevant and important. It is actually helping him, his family, and his friends. At the same time it is destroying lives, American credibilty around the world, and financial resources. It is also inciting anti-Americanism around the world, something that could take decades to repair and will have immeasurable consequences, including more terrorism against Americans.
And what does President Bush say about all this..."Bring it on". "We will not leave Iraq until the job is done." "The War on Terror is moral and I must protect the American people." "Fool me once, shame on...uh, you. Fool me twice, shame on uh, ..." When you see the movie you will judge for yourself who is to blame. Michael Moore is certainly not the one to blame for the the last 3 years of the Bush presidency.
Wednesday, May 26, 2004
Forewarned is Forearmed
We are an amazing bunch of 'sheeple', as Michael Savage would say. Warn us enough about something bad happening that then doesn't happen, and presto, subsequent warnings are completely disregarded. Unbeknownst to us, and most gamblers, the odds of rolling seven with 2 dice each roll stands on its own, with no relation to what has happened previously. That's what odds are. They are not contingent on the fact that you rolled a 7 one, two, or twenty times in a row. Each roll stands on its own, independently of any history. So does the latest terror alert, which was received with an almost unanimous "not again" being thought by the collective American public, stand on its own.
This warning seems to come with some additional supportive "chatter", details, corroboration, credibility, and even some wanted photos of potential terrorists who might be setting up the attacks, but once again, no specifics on type of attack, time, or place. Just that it will be BIG. They have warned that the crazies may decide to make it a fairly large scale attack and may in fact use chemical, biological, or g-d forbid, nuclear type of weapon. AWww...Shucks, maybe one day the terrorists will slip up and give us the place and time as well. Another twist, is that even with all the extra information, the newly irrelevant Department of Homeland Security has decided that it is not necessary to raise the nursery school modeled, color coded Threat Level, from the everyday yellow or "elevated" level, to the more exciting orange or "high" level, which would trigger all sorts of extra security and precauctions, even though the Department of Homeland Security has assured the public that they will be stepping up security and alert levels nationwide.
Funny thing is, we just had all these congressional hearings about how our leaders and government agencies fouled up intelligence prior to the 9/11 attacks, yet now we have all this information, and we seem to be basically ignoring it. Go figure. As I watch all the news coming out, I can't help but ask myself what would I have been doing if I had very credible, corroborated, & kind of specific, information that terrorist were 90% prepared to attack our country in a BIG way?
Well, now we have that heads up...so do whatever you would have done now. After the attack, it will be too late.
We are an amazing bunch of 'sheeple', as Michael Savage would say. Warn us enough about something bad happening that then doesn't happen, and presto, subsequent warnings are completely disregarded. Unbeknownst to us, and most gamblers, the odds of rolling seven with 2 dice each roll stands on its own, with no relation to what has happened previously. That's what odds are. They are not contingent on the fact that you rolled a 7 one, two, or twenty times in a row. Each roll stands on its own, independently of any history. So does the latest terror alert, which was received with an almost unanimous "not again" being thought by the collective American public, stand on its own.
This warning seems to come with some additional supportive "chatter", details, corroboration, credibility, and even some wanted photos of potential terrorists who might be setting up the attacks, but once again, no specifics on type of attack, time, or place. Just that it will be BIG. They have warned that the crazies may decide to make it a fairly large scale attack and may in fact use chemical, biological, or g-d forbid, nuclear type of weapon. AWww...Shucks, maybe one day the terrorists will slip up and give us the place and time as well. Another twist, is that even with all the extra information, the newly irrelevant Department of Homeland Security has decided that it is not necessary to raise the nursery school modeled, color coded Threat Level, from the everyday yellow or "elevated" level, to the more exciting orange or "high" level, which would trigger all sorts of extra security and precauctions, even though the Department of Homeland Security has assured the public that they will be stepping up security and alert levels nationwide.
Funny thing is, we just had all these congressional hearings about how our leaders and government agencies fouled up intelligence prior to the 9/11 attacks, yet now we have all this information, and we seem to be basically ignoring it. Go figure. As I watch all the news coming out, I can't help but ask myself what would I have been doing if I had very credible, corroborated, & kind of specific, information that terrorist were 90% prepared to attack our country in a BIG way?
Well, now we have that heads up...so do whatever you would have done now. After the attack, it will be too late.
Thursday, May 13, 2004
My Wife Told Me Gas Is $2 a gallon
This past weekend, during one of our quite moments, when the children were asleep, my wife curled up next to me and said, "honey, do you know gas is $2.00 a gallon for regular?" I almost fell out of bed. I have been married for 17 years and my wife has never said anything to me about gas, except to ask me to fill her car up with it. The high cost of oil is catching the attention of everybody, including my wife, which is a sign that either the top is in, or our economy is about to stress under the weight of permanently high oil prices.
Over the past few months OIL has been expensive and recently, it has reached prices not seen since, EVER! Recent prices have never been seen, and many things are signaling that these prices are not going to recede in the near term, and maybe not for the intermediate, or long term either.
OPEC says that they are close to maxing out there production capacity, and many of the OPEC Ministers say that its not the supply of oil that is the problem. The Qatari minister also said even maximum OPEC oil production output wouldn't solve the problem of record-high oil prices. Political and psychological factors weighing on global oil markets were behind high crude futures prices. "OPEC can't solve these issues," he said, repeating that there is no shortage of supply in today's oil markets.
In fact, OPEC stated today that "inadequate refining capacity in the U.S. and multiple specifications for gasoline in its different states are some of the reasons behind the current high global oil prices." The causes for high OIL prices are many...geopolitical tension, high demand (caused by many things, not just a strong global economy), low refining capacity, and maybe most concerning the hubbert index that says that oil production is peaking and will begin to decline over the next decade.
Over the past decade, OIL use and supply complacency has risen and currently, we are mired in a dangerous and debilitating OIL dependency, much like a drug addict. Regardless of cost or consequences, our nation continues to consume oil at the the highest rate in our history and we have failed to invest in any significant "treatment" program to alleviate this problem.
OIL is not just used to power our vehicles. As important as gasoline is to our cars, it is only a small part of our nations OIL consumption. OIL and its many by products are used in almost every industry and is a key raw material in many products, most which we do not consider as an "oil related" product. Some examples of this is carpeting, paint & coatings, plastics, adhesives, rubber, and many synthetic materials used to make fabrics & clothing.
Our homes are heated and cooled with either oil or electricity generated by oil. Our boats, planes, trucks and factories use oil to operate. Chemical companies, hotels, manufacturing, construction, food service, transportation, etc. all require oil to operate and run their businesses. And last but clearly not least, we need huge amounts of oil to keep our military and national defense functioning.
With OIL being a key ingredient to the fundamental operation of our economy, it is remarkable that the consistently high price has not had a more detrimental effect on the economic recovery. How long that can last is yet to be seen, but as the price of oil remains high or if it presses higher, for what ever reason, it cannot remain benign and will not be able to be ignored. Most recently, John Snow, Secretary of the Treasury, said in a way only he can, "the high price of oil is not helpful, but should not halt our country's economic recovery."
The truth of the matter is that high oil prices are much more than "not helpful" to the US and global economy. The implications are way to far reaching to get into in this blog, but the repercussions of expensive oil will show up in every industry and affect every person, everyday.
In previous periods of high OIL/energy prices, economic slowdowns or RECESSIONS always occur...normally about 6 months later. Being that high prices have been upon us for sometime now, going back almost one year, if prices do not recede in short order, economic strain caused by high OIL prices should show up in the coming months. And the only reason it hasn't yet is that borrowing has been so inexpensive, that the high cost of oil has only been background noise, especially since we are continuosly told by the BUsh administration that oil prices will come down as we secure Iraq...NOT!
If my wife can't ignore the high price of gas any longer, then neither can the economy.
And as a footnote, having nothing to do with oil...
If the FED decides to move from its overly accomodative monetary policy in the coming months, that will add a new dynamic to the high energy prices. "Money" is a large component to the workings of the economy, so if the FED makes it more expensive to borrow it, at the same time as consumers and businesses are facing consistently high OIL prices, the combination will be powerful and unique to this business cycle. The combination of expensive OIL and more expensive borrowing costs could be a combination of forces that hit corporations and consumers in a way not seen before. The economic drugs we are addicted to are cheap money and oil...wait till the hangover from these two kick in.
This past weekend, during one of our quite moments, when the children were asleep, my wife curled up next to me and said, "honey, do you know gas is $2.00 a gallon for regular?" I almost fell out of bed. I have been married for 17 years and my wife has never said anything to me about gas, except to ask me to fill her car up with it. The high cost of oil is catching the attention of everybody, including my wife, which is a sign that either the top is in, or our economy is about to stress under the weight of permanently high oil prices.
Over the past few months OIL has been expensive and recently, it has reached prices not seen since, EVER! Recent prices have never been seen, and many things are signaling that these prices are not going to recede in the near term, and maybe not for the intermediate, or long term either.
OPEC says that they are close to maxing out there production capacity, and many of the OPEC Ministers say that its not the supply of oil that is the problem. The Qatari minister also said even maximum OPEC oil production output wouldn't solve the problem of record-high oil prices. Political and psychological factors weighing on global oil markets were behind high crude futures prices. "OPEC can't solve these issues," he said, repeating that there is no shortage of supply in today's oil markets.
In fact, OPEC stated today that "inadequate refining capacity in the U.S. and multiple specifications for gasoline in its different states are some of the reasons behind the current high global oil prices." The causes for high OIL prices are many...geopolitical tension, high demand (caused by many things, not just a strong global economy), low refining capacity, and maybe most concerning the hubbert index that says that oil production is peaking and will begin to decline over the next decade.
Over the past decade, OIL use and supply complacency has risen and currently, we are mired in a dangerous and debilitating OIL dependency, much like a drug addict. Regardless of cost or consequences, our nation continues to consume oil at the the highest rate in our history and we have failed to invest in any significant "treatment" program to alleviate this problem.
OIL is not just used to power our vehicles. As important as gasoline is to our cars, it is only a small part of our nations OIL consumption. OIL and its many by products are used in almost every industry and is a key raw material in many products, most which we do not consider as an "oil related" product. Some examples of this is carpeting, paint & coatings, plastics, adhesives, rubber, and many synthetic materials used to make fabrics & clothing.
Our homes are heated and cooled with either oil or electricity generated by oil. Our boats, planes, trucks and factories use oil to operate. Chemical companies, hotels, manufacturing, construction, food service, transportation, etc. all require oil to operate and run their businesses. And last but clearly not least, we need huge amounts of oil to keep our military and national defense functioning.
With OIL being a key ingredient to the fundamental operation of our economy, it is remarkable that the consistently high price has not had a more detrimental effect on the economic recovery. How long that can last is yet to be seen, but as the price of oil remains high or if it presses higher, for what ever reason, it cannot remain benign and will not be able to be ignored. Most recently, John Snow, Secretary of the Treasury, said in a way only he can, "the high price of oil is not helpful, but should not halt our country's economic recovery."
The truth of the matter is that high oil prices are much more than "not helpful" to the US and global economy. The implications are way to far reaching to get into in this blog, but the repercussions of expensive oil will show up in every industry and affect every person, everyday.
In previous periods of high OIL/energy prices, economic slowdowns or RECESSIONS always occur...normally about 6 months later. Being that high prices have been upon us for sometime now, going back almost one year, if prices do not recede in short order, economic strain caused by high OIL prices should show up in the coming months. And the only reason it hasn't yet is that borrowing has been so inexpensive, that the high cost of oil has only been background noise, especially since we are continuosly told by the BUsh administration that oil prices will come down as we secure Iraq...NOT!
If my wife can't ignore the high price of gas any longer, then neither can the economy.
And as a footnote, having nothing to do with oil...
If the FED decides to move from its overly accomodative monetary policy in the coming months, that will add a new dynamic to the high energy prices. "Money" is a large component to the workings of the economy, so if the FED makes it more expensive to borrow it, at the same time as consumers and businesses are facing consistently high OIL prices, the combination will be powerful and unique to this business cycle. The combination of expensive OIL and more expensive borrowing costs could be a combination of forces that hit corporations and consumers in a way not seen before. The economic drugs we are addicted to are cheap money and oil...wait till the hangover from these two kick in.
Wednesday, May 12, 2004
SELF INFLICTED WOUND
After all the inquiries, investigations, and court martials are done, what will be left of the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal? According to the Vatican spokesman, the damage done to American-Islam relations will be substantial and by their estimation, will hurt America worse than the attacks of 9/11. The statement read as follows...ROME - The scandal of prisoner abuses by U.S. soldiers in Iraq has dealt a bigger blow to the United States than the Sept. 11 attacks, the Vatican foreign minister told an Italian newspaper. In an interview published Wednesday in the Rome daily La Repubblica, Archbishop Giovanni Lajolo described the abuses as "a tragic episode in the relationship with Islam" and said the scandal would fuel hatred for the West and for Christianity.
"The torture? A more serious blow to the United States than Sept. 11. Except that the blow was not inflicted by terrorists but by Americans against themselves," Lajolo was quoted as saying in La Repubblica. Lajolo said that "intelligent people in Arab countries understand that in a democracy such episodes are not hidden and are punished ... Still the vast mass of people — under the influence of Arab media — cannot but feel aversion and hate for the West growing inside themselves." And, he added, "the West is often identified with Christianity."
The repair stragtegy currently underway will do nothing to repair the public perception in the Muslim world or to change the feelings towards the west or the disdain they have for the American occupation of Iraq. The fuel is on the fire, and the people who hated us hate us more, and now the people who didn't hate us are reconsidering how they feel.
The Cold War has turned into a Hot War, some are calling it WW III, and it seems that it will be with us for quite some time. Like the terrorists that seem small in numbers, yet so effective when they strike, the few soldiers that violated the Iraqi prisoners and took pictures of what they were doing, the few will affect many for a very long time.
After all the inquiries, investigations, and court martials are done, what will be left of the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal? According to the Vatican spokesman, the damage done to American-Islam relations will be substantial and by their estimation, will hurt America worse than the attacks of 9/11. The statement read as follows...ROME - The scandal of prisoner abuses by U.S. soldiers in Iraq has dealt a bigger blow to the United States than the Sept. 11 attacks, the Vatican foreign minister told an Italian newspaper. In an interview published Wednesday in the Rome daily La Repubblica, Archbishop Giovanni Lajolo described the abuses as "a tragic episode in the relationship with Islam" and said the scandal would fuel hatred for the West and for Christianity.
"The torture? A more serious blow to the United States than Sept. 11. Except that the blow was not inflicted by terrorists but by Americans against themselves," Lajolo was quoted as saying in La Repubblica. Lajolo said that "intelligent people in Arab countries understand that in a democracy such episodes are not hidden and are punished ... Still the vast mass of people — under the influence of Arab media — cannot but feel aversion and hate for the West growing inside themselves." And, he added, "the West is often identified with Christianity."
The repair stragtegy currently underway will do nothing to repair the public perception in the Muslim world or to change the feelings towards the west or the disdain they have for the American occupation of Iraq. The fuel is on the fire, and the people who hated us hate us more, and now the people who didn't hate us are reconsidering how they feel.
The Cold War has turned into a Hot War, some are calling it WW III, and it seems that it will be with us for quite some time. Like the terrorists that seem small in numbers, yet so effective when they strike, the few soldiers that violated the Iraqi prisoners and took pictures of what they were doing, the few will affect many for a very long time.
Monday, May 10, 2004
GRACEFULLY FALLING ON YOUR M-16
Dear Mr. President,
For the good of the troops and as a show of loyalty to you, my Commander in Chief, I hereby submit my letter of resignation as Secretary of Defense of the United States. I have tried to faithfully serve the American people using my experience and military expertise, yet I have failed in so many ways. I was wrong when I recommended invading Iraq prior to completing the War in Afghanistan. I was wrong on the level of troops necessary to successfully secure Iraq. I was wrong about how much it would cost to fight the war and secure the country. I was wrong about what would happen in the aftermath of a successful military invasion of Iraq. I was wrong about how the capture of Saddam Hussien would effect the Iraqi people. I was wrong to not more thoroughly investigate the prison abuse scandal, and I was deficient when I chose not to bring the situation to your immediate attention. I have been wrong about many things and it would be wrong if I didn't resign.
Thanks you for supporting me up until the end.
Your loyal friend,
Donald Rumsfeld
Dear Mr. President,
For the good of the troops and as a show of loyalty to you, my Commander in Chief, I hereby submit my letter of resignation as Secretary of Defense of the United States. I have tried to faithfully serve the American people using my experience and military expertise, yet I have failed in so many ways. I was wrong when I recommended invading Iraq prior to completing the War in Afghanistan. I was wrong on the level of troops necessary to successfully secure Iraq. I was wrong about how much it would cost to fight the war and secure the country. I was wrong about what would happen in the aftermath of a successful military invasion of Iraq. I was wrong about how the capture of Saddam Hussien would effect the Iraqi people. I was wrong to not more thoroughly investigate the prison abuse scandal, and I was deficient when I chose not to bring the situation to your immediate attention. I have been wrong about many things and it would be wrong if I didn't resign.
Thanks you for supporting me up until the end.
Your loyal friend,
Donald Rumsfeld
The Bears That Cried CRASH
We all know the story of the Boy That Cried Wolf. A little boy looking for some attention from the people around him made up a story about a Wolf. After a few 'false alarms' the people stopped paying attention. Just then a Wolf did show up and attacked the people even as the boy warned them that now there really was a Wolf. A famous fairy tale that is used by all of us with our own children to prevent them from telling stories or outright lying, so that when there is real trouble or a problem, we believe them and don't ignore something that truly needs our attention.
For the past year, the well known perma-bears and some other less reviled strategists, have been 'crying' about an economic environment that is unstable and off balance due to many things, which I will not list here, as they are just plain old depressing and have been discussed ad-nauseum in my previous writings. Yet, as the market has been rewarding ignorance and denial of these well known economic issues, investors have been disregarding them. Some very smart investors such as George Soros, Warren Buffet, Sir John Templeton, Robert Rubin, Bill Gross, and other previously well followed market mavens have sounded warning bells, yet investors continue to ignore the warnings. Now, when the proverbial Wolf may very well be upon us, clearly noone is listening.
So far, the market action makes their warnings seem senseless and unwarranted, but that is not because they are not valid. It is because the collective investment community, aided and abetted by the FED and the Bush administration continue to pull increasingly more dangerous economic maneuvers to keep the economic data 'plates' spinning. Hopefully, the analogy is clear. In a circus we watch the juggler put 1 plate up on a stick, then the next and the next until he has 7,8,9, even 10 plates spinning. It is amazing and the crowd ohh's and ahh's with each additional plate. It takes some time to get them all up and going, but at the end of the performance, the plates come crashing down all at once. The show is terrific and the ending is a mess.
Back to the bears and the Wolf, even though the Wolf is clearly knocking on the door, the Bulls don't care and continue to ignore the warnings. The only ending can be a horrible mess for all involved.
We all know the story of the Boy That Cried Wolf. A little boy looking for some attention from the people around him made up a story about a Wolf. After a few 'false alarms' the people stopped paying attention. Just then a Wolf did show up and attacked the people even as the boy warned them that now there really was a Wolf. A famous fairy tale that is used by all of us with our own children to prevent them from telling stories or outright lying, so that when there is real trouble or a problem, we believe them and don't ignore something that truly needs our attention.
For the past year, the well known perma-bears and some other less reviled strategists, have been 'crying' about an economic environment that is unstable and off balance due to many things, which I will not list here, as they are just plain old depressing and have been discussed ad-nauseum in my previous writings. Yet, as the market has been rewarding ignorance and denial of these well known economic issues, investors have been disregarding them. Some very smart investors such as George Soros, Warren Buffet, Sir John Templeton, Robert Rubin, Bill Gross, and other previously well followed market mavens have sounded warning bells, yet investors continue to ignore the warnings. Now, when the proverbial Wolf may very well be upon us, clearly noone is listening.
So far, the market action makes their warnings seem senseless and unwarranted, but that is not because they are not valid. It is because the collective investment community, aided and abetted by the FED and the Bush administration continue to pull increasingly more dangerous economic maneuvers to keep the economic data 'plates' spinning. Hopefully, the analogy is clear. In a circus we watch the juggler put 1 plate up on a stick, then the next and the next until he has 7,8,9, even 10 plates spinning. It is amazing and the crowd ohh's and ahh's with each additional plate. It takes some time to get them all up and going, but at the end of the performance, the plates come crashing down all at once. The show is terrific and the ending is a mess.
Back to the bears and the Wolf, even though the Wolf is clearly knocking on the door, the Bulls don't care and continue to ignore the warnings. The only ending can be a horrible mess for all involved.
Wednesday, May 05, 2004
PATIENCE WEARING THIN
The FED has all but run out of verbiage to use in its famous FED statements. It is the most widely read government agency press release and its probably the most difficult to interpret, even though its only 2 paragraphs long and contains a mere 143 words. The FED has couched its policy moves in a few of those words. Specifically, "considerable period", "patience", and now, "measured". My guess, along with everybody else's, is that the next statement contains the word "raise" prior to the words "federal funds rate". That would be the signal, that in fact, the FED would be raising rates. Until then, we all wait.
What is very interesting in the recent statements, is the fact that the FED still says that "the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy...is providing important ongoing support to economic activity." That implies that the recovery and subsequent strength in the economic data is NOT self-sustaining. Clearly, the FED still believes that after three quarters of what normally would be considered healthy growth the economy still has not entered an economic cycle that is powering itself. And thus, still needs historic low interest rates to keep the economy supported. Interest rates that in fact, were put in place specifically to counter the effects of the terrorist attack on 9/11/01, the subsequent war on terror, and the ongoing recessionary environment which followed the bear market in stocks. Most of which is far behind us.
Why would the economy still need that "important ongoing support"? How can that be explained and why haven't they explained it more thoroughly? Slack resource use is the verbiage used, but why would that be? Hasn't the excess capacity been absorbed yet? Haven't companies started to rehire all the laid off workers? If not now, when?? What does that say about the health of the economy? What does that show about the FED's policy up until now? Has all the "easy money" been used to just to keep us from falling apart? And how does the FED unwind the situation without slamming all the borrowers on the head? They just told us to get adjustable rate mortgages. Revolving credit is "revolving" faster than ever. Auto loans at 0% are critical to the auto industry, and 35% of automobiles on the road are 'upside-down'.
Many well known and well respected pundits, strategists and economists have been calling for the FED to start raising rates to begin the unwind and to head off inflation. They are reading the same data as the FED, yet they have a different interpretation of the data. These people must see more strength than the FED. The FED has resisted and has in fact disregarded many suggestions, jawboning and signs that they should be moving rates higher to get ahead of the so called curve. Nonetheless, the FED did nothing. It seems they are either scared or confused, or maybe they know something that everybody else doesn't. They certainly are not showing leadership or insight, as many of their strongest supporters are saying that they don't understand what the FED is waiting for. Even Larry Kudlow called out Mr. Greenspan to get moving on rates.
Now we will patiently remain patient as the FED does its calculations and data collection. August is the next FOMC meeting, and they will have lots to digest between now and then. I can't wait to see the next statement, if only for the fact that there will be some different words in it.
The FED has all but run out of verbiage to use in its famous FED statements. It is the most widely read government agency press release and its probably the most difficult to interpret, even though its only 2 paragraphs long and contains a mere 143 words. The FED has couched its policy moves in a few of those words. Specifically, "considerable period", "patience", and now, "measured". My guess, along with everybody else's, is that the next statement contains the word "raise" prior to the words "federal funds rate". That would be the signal, that in fact, the FED would be raising rates. Until then, we all wait.
What is very interesting in the recent statements, is the fact that the FED still says that "the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy...is providing important ongoing support to economic activity." That implies that the recovery and subsequent strength in the economic data is NOT self-sustaining. Clearly, the FED still believes that after three quarters of what normally would be considered healthy growth the economy still has not entered an economic cycle that is powering itself. And thus, still needs historic low interest rates to keep the economy supported. Interest rates that in fact, were put in place specifically to counter the effects of the terrorist attack on 9/11/01, the subsequent war on terror, and the ongoing recessionary environment which followed the bear market in stocks. Most of which is far behind us.
Why would the economy still need that "important ongoing support"? How can that be explained and why haven't they explained it more thoroughly? Slack resource use is the verbiage used, but why would that be? Hasn't the excess capacity been absorbed yet? Haven't companies started to rehire all the laid off workers? If not now, when?? What does that say about the health of the economy? What does that show about the FED's policy up until now? Has all the "easy money" been used to just to keep us from falling apart? And how does the FED unwind the situation without slamming all the borrowers on the head? They just told us to get adjustable rate mortgages. Revolving credit is "revolving" faster than ever. Auto loans at 0% are critical to the auto industry, and 35% of automobiles on the road are 'upside-down'.
Many well known and well respected pundits, strategists and economists have been calling for the FED to start raising rates to begin the unwind and to head off inflation. They are reading the same data as the FED, yet they have a different interpretation of the data. These people must see more strength than the FED. The FED has resisted and has in fact disregarded many suggestions, jawboning and signs that they should be moving rates higher to get ahead of the so called curve. Nonetheless, the FED did nothing. It seems they are either scared or confused, or maybe they know something that everybody else doesn't. They certainly are not showing leadership or insight, as many of their strongest supporters are saying that they don't understand what the FED is waiting for. Even Larry Kudlow called out Mr. Greenspan to get moving on rates.
Now we will patiently remain patient as the FED does its calculations and data collection. August is the next FOMC meeting, and they will have lots to digest between now and then. I can't wait to see the next statement, if only for the fact that there will be some different words in it.
Monday, April 26, 2004
Casualties of War
It is totally unamerican and quite ridiculous that our government, which decided to invade and take over a country 8000 miles away in the name of democracy and FREEDOM, is now trying to hide the reality and consequences of its actions. Good, bad, or indifferent, for the right reason or fabricated ones, in the name of democracy or anything else, for the bush administration to now try and shield the american people from the casualties of the war is absurd. We are supposedly fighting this war in iraq to free the iraqi people and spread democracy.
So far, the results are terrible. We've closed down a newspaper in iraq because we didn't like what it was saying. We are preventing the american public from seeing the dead soldiers. We have captured the evil dictactor and the country is in virtual chaos. The iraqis and the rest of the arab world has not embraced what we are trying to do, and they are not helping us at all. They resent us now more than ever before and hatered for america is growing. The so called coalition is a coalition of one...the US. The only objective is to secure the second largest oil reserve in the world so that we can secure enough oil to maintain our standard of living and continnue driving gas guzzling SUV's and heat out McMansions! Our country is quickly becoming a mockery, and even our closest allies are questioning our intentions. As for hiding the flag draped casckets of our dead soldiers...shame on you George Bush...god will not forgive you for this or any of your other deceptions or lies. You lied to get us into the war. Now you lie about what is going on in Iraq. And I can only imagine the lies it will take to get us out.
If I were a dead soldier, I would want the truth to be shown and told. The controversy about shielding the American public and the world from seeing photos of coffins is just another in a long list of the casualties of war, which was started under false pretense and mis-information. I hope this all ends soon and without totally destroying our great country.
It is totally unamerican and quite ridiculous that our government, which decided to invade and take over a country 8000 miles away in the name of democracy and FREEDOM, is now trying to hide the reality and consequences of its actions. Good, bad, or indifferent, for the right reason or fabricated ones, in the name of democracy or anything else, for the bush administration to now try and shield the american people from the casualties of the war is absurd. We are supposedly fighting this war in iraq to free the iraqi people and spread democracy.
So far, the results are terrible. We've closed down a newspaper in iraq because we didn't like what it was saying. We are preventing the american public from seeing the dead soldiers. We have captured the evil dictactor and the country is in virtual chaos. The iraqis and the rest of the arab world has not embraced what we are trying to do, and they are not helping us at all. They resent us now more than ever before and hatered for america is growing. The so called coalition is a coalition of one...the US. The only objective is to secure the second largest oil reserve in the world so that we can secure enough oil to maintain our standard of living and continnue driving gas guzzling SUV's and heat out McMansions! Our country is quickly becoming a mockery, and even our closest allies are questioning our intentions. As for hiding the flag draped casckets of our dead soldiers...shame on you George Bush...god will not forgive you for this or any of your other deceptions or lies. You lied to get us into the war. Now you lie about what is going on in Iraq. And I can only imagine the lies it will take to get us out.
If I were a dead soldier, I would want the truth to be shown and told. The controversy about shielding the American public and the world from seeing photos of coffins is just another in a long list of the casualties of war, which was started under false pretense and mis-information. I hope this all ends soon and without totally destroying our great country.
THE BLUR OF DECEPTION
In the course of the last 6 weeks the constant leaks, and at times flood, of new and startling information has brought to light the truth about what really happened before and after september 11, 2001. Even more outrageous, are the revelations of what and how our government proceeded after the attack on our country, and how it convinced the american people and the world what it was doing was a justified response to the attack and was necessary to prevent a future attack on our homeland.
It has become a blur of deception and misinformation strewn with hidden agendas, unsubstantiated claims, twisted motives and unknown outcomes. It was based on faulty information riddled with incorrect evaluations mixed with outright lies and subsequent cover-ups. Almost too much to understand or believe. If you aren't keeping a running tally of who said what to who and when, or who knew what and why they didn't disclose it sooner, or how this leader or that diplomat did not know or not think to ask...it is just utterly incomprehensible.
So many hearings with so many important government officials answering questions and telling stories of what has been happening in the most powerful place in the world, washington d.c. and how it has all led us to where we are today. Important people coming forward with vital information painting a picture of incompetance and mistakes made at the highest levels of our government and intelligence agencies. Failings that began way before 9/11 and continued well through the start of the war in iraq and seemingly continue today.
A blur of deception has confused the american public. As time goes by and all the information has a chance to get digested and understood i am sure many will become outraged. I am proud to be an american citizen and i feel lucky to live in america, but I am not proud of what happened in this country before, during, and after 9/11/01.
In the course of the last 6 weeks the constant leaks, and at times flood, of new and startling information has brought to light the truth about what really happened before and after september 11, 2001. Even more outrageous, are the revelations of what and how our government proceeded after the attack on our country, and how it convinced the american people and the world what it was doing was a justified response to the attack and was necessary to prevent a future attack on our homeland.
It has become a blur of deception and misinformation strewn with hidden agendas, unsubstantiated claims, twisted motives and unknown outcomes. It was based on faulty information riddled with incorrect evaluations mixed with outright lies and subsequent cover-ups. Almost too much to understand or believe. If you aren't keeping a running tally of who said what to who and when, or who knew what and why they didn't disclose it sooner, or how this leader or that diplomat did not know or not think to ask...it is just utterly incomprehensible.
So many hearings with so many important government officials answering questions and telling stories of what has been happening in the most powerful place in the world, washington d.c. and how it has all led us to where we are today. Important people coming forward with vital information painting a picture of incompetance and mistakes made at the highest levels of our government and intelligence agencies. Failings that began way before 9/11 and continued well through the start of the war in iraq and seemingly continue today.
A blur of deception has confused the american public. As time goes by and all the information has a chance to get digested and understood i am sure many will become outraged. I am proud to be an american citizen and i feel lucky to live in america, but I am not proud of what happened in this country before, during, and after 9/11/01.
Saturday, March 06, 2004
TIME TO GET CONTRITE
Martha Stewart was found guilty on 4 counts of conspiring and lying to the government during the investigation of her illegal sales of stock in Imclone Corporation. In the aftermath of the verdict, her arrogance was unbelievable. It is clear to the public and the jurors in this case, that she did something wrong and then lied about it. Martha Stewart committed these crimes with full and complete understanding of the consequences and with the knowledge of the rules & regulations of the stock market system.
You see, Martha Stewart wasn't your everyday, run of the mill CEO. She was at one point in her illustrious career a licensed stock broker. In order to obtain that dubious distinction, and license, one must take a 40 hour course and pass a 4 hour exam. It is known in the industry as Series 7, and if passed allows a person to become a stock broker and get all the spoils that come along with it. An important part of the course and the exam are the concentrated on the rules & regulations regarding insider trading. Martha knew what she was doing was wrong when she did it and afterwards when she lied about doing it.
In addition to the fact that she was a stock broker, with the knowledge that comes along with it, Martha was a sitting Board member of the New York Stock Exchange. I do not know what it takes to become a NYSE board member, but I have to believe it requires a pledge of honesty and integrity, along with a committment to be truthful when giving any type of testimony under oath, especially when it is with the Self Regulatory Organization that governs the NYSE.
Martha knew what she was doing and she deserves to be punished for what she did. She clearly thought she was above it all and was not subject to the rules & regulations that govern fair market activity. She risked her reputation, carrer, and $400,000,000.00 fortune for a mere $240,000.00 of speculative (if she were to lose her entire Imclone investment). She lost that gamble and deserves what is now happening to her. It is very unfortunate that her company employees are going to suffer as well, yet as the decorating diva, she had no regard for their trust either. In hindsight, it was probably never deserved.
Martha Stewart, in her statement after the verdict said, "I am obviously distressed by the jury's verdict but I continue to take comfort in knowing that I have done nothing wrong and that I have the enduring support of my family and friends. "I will appeal the verdict and continue to fight to clear my name. I believe in the fairness of the judicial system and remain confident that I will ultimately prevail." She is still unwilling to admit that she lied and tried to game the system. Her next book will be called..."How to Decorate 12' by 8", and she will write it from inside a Federal Penetentiary. Maybe when she gets out she will tell her adoring fans the truth.
Martha Stewart was found guilty on 4 counts of conspiring and lying to the government during the investigation of her illegal sales of stock in Imclone Corporation. In the aftermath of the verdict, her arrogance was unbelievable. It is clear to the public and the jurors in this case, that she did something wrong and then lied about it. Martha Stewart committed these crimes with full and complete understanding of the consequences and with the knowledge of the rules & regulations of the stock market system.
You see, Martha Stewart wasn't your everyday, run of the mill CEO. She was at one point in her illustrious career a licensed stock broker. In order to obtain that dubious distinction, and license, one must take a 40 hour course and pass a 4 hour exam. It is known in the industry as Series 7, and if passed allows a person to become a stock broker and get all the spoils that come along with it. An important part of the course and the exam are the concentrated on the rules & regulations regarding insider trading. Martha knew what she was doing was wrong when she did it and afterwards when she lied about doing it.
In addition to the fact that she was a stock broker, with the knowledge that comes along with it, Martha was a sitting Board member of the New York Stock Exchange. I do not know what it takes to become a NYSE board member, but I have to believe it requires a pledge of honesty and integrity, along with a committment to be truthful when giving any type of testimony under oath, especially when it is with the Self Regulatory Organization that governs the NYSE.
Martha knew what she was doing and she deserves to be punished for what she did. She clearly thought she was above it all and was not subject to the rules & regulations that govern fair market activity. She risked her reputation, carrer, and $400,000,000.00 fortune for a mere $240,000.00 of speculative (if she were to lose her entire Imclone investment). She lost that gamble and deserves what is now happening to her. It is very unfortunate that her company employees are going to suffer as well, yet as the decorating diva, she had no regard for their trust either. In hindsight, it was probably never deserved.
Martha Stewart, in her statement after the verdict said, "I am obviously distressed by the jury's verdict but I continue to take comfort in knowing that I have done nothing wrong and that I have the enduring support of my family and friends. "I will appeal the verdict and continue to fight to clear my name. I believe in the fairness of the judicial system and remain confident that I will ultimately prevail." She is still unwilling to admit that she lied and tried to game the system. Her next book will be called..."How to Decorate 12' by 8", and she will write it from inside a Federal Penetentiary. Maybe when she gets out she will tell her adoring fans the truth.
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
THE DUMBING OF AMERICA
For many years it has been obvious that asian americans have been excelling in many areas of technology and science, trumping the american born population. Morgan Stanley's chief economist Stephen Roach warned in a note Monday that U.S. workers may already be behind in educating themselves, citing statistics showing the number of Asians getting science and engineering degrees has jumped more than 50 percent in the past two decades while the number of Americans getting similar degrees has been stagnant. Roach went on to write, "The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security."
We have become a society that is complacent about what we have. Our children have become confused by television. They see images of what life is like, yet it is a fabricated and in most cases unrepresentative portrayal of what it takes to succeed and how to go about becoming successful. The new reality show "The Apprentice" is the most striking example of what we are showing our children and ourselves about what it takes to make it in the American business world. Sports figures, super models, musician and singers get idolized while teachers are paid less than sanitation workers and are mired in overcrowded classrooms and delapidated schools. Children and adults are being blinded by a twisted sense of what it takes to earn a "good living".
Immigrants are building our homes and office buildings, they harvest out food and clean our homes. White collar jobs are being sent overseas or eliminated due to redundancies. Blue collar, lifetime jobs are being replaced with technology and machines. Doctors are overwhelmed with high insurance costs and HMO's that don't pay them promptly or adequately for their skills. Service jobs are abundant as our society thinks its entitled to eat out, shop, and travel regularly. Leisure is a constitutional right and work is a way to make money to pay the interest on the credit cards. People are retiring later in life and are taking up jobs that previously went to entry level workers starting out in the job market.
Since we have stopped educating ourselves and our children to be the best and smartest, others have filled the void to the detrement of the next generation of workers. Most Americans have become job snobs, only seeking out those positions with lots of perks, good health care benefits and a good paycheck. Otherwise, it makes more sense to stay at home and take care of your children. Some have decided to get a job selling some sort of skin care product in a multi-level business. Some opt for collecting disability insurance as their previous career careened off track and made them unable to function in the new technological age. And as a last resort, unemployment insurance and welfare are better than the menial jobs offered at fast food restaurants.
As our good paying jobs continue to get downsized or outsourced, the working population has had a harder and harder time finding jobs that are acceptable. Whether we like it or not, the trend will continue and illegal immigrants will continue to take our labor jobs, and white collar workers will have a much more difficult time finding the job they desire.
The unemployment rate and jobless claims do not reflect the structural changes in the jobs market in the US. The next generation will see major changes and challenges getting good jobs going forward, and the baby boom generation will have to cope with the repercusions of less workers paying social security taxes. Retirement may never come for most as they will need to work longer to pay their medical bills.
The current "jobless recovery" may be just the beginning of a structural change in the US economy and jobs market that will last well into the 21st century. Educational will be a key factor in determining if the next generation has a job or not.
For many years it has been obvious that asian americans have been excelling in many areas of technology and science, trumping the american born population. Morgan Stanley's chief economist Stephen Roach warned in a note Monday that U.S. workers may already be behind in educating themselves, citing statistics showing the number of Asians getting science and engineering degrees has jumped more than 50 percent in the past two decades while the number of Americans getting similar degrees has been stagnant. Roach went on to write, "The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security."
We have become a society that is complacent about what we have. Our children have become confused by television. They see images of what life is like, yet it is a fabricated and in most cases unrepresentative portrayal of what it takes to succeed and how to go about becoming successful. The new reality show "The Apprentice" is the most striking example of what we are showing our children and ourselves about what it takes to make it in the American business world. Sports figures, super models, musician and singers get idolized while teachers are paid less than sanitation workers and are mired in overcrowded classrooms and delapidated schools. Children and adults are being blinded by a twisted sense of what it takes to earn a "good living".
Immigrants are building our homes and office buildings, they harvest out food and clean our homes. White collar jobs are being sent overseas or eliminated due to redundancies. Blue collar, lifetime jobs are being replaced with technology and machines. Doctors are overwhelmed with high insurance costs and HMO's that don't pay them promptly or adequately for their skills. Service jobs are abundant as our society thinks its entitled to eat out, shop, and travel regularly. Leisure is a constitutional right and work is a way to make money to pay the interest on the credit cards. People are retiring later in life and are taking up jobs that previously went to entry level workers starting out in the job market.
Since we have stopped educating ourselves and our children to be the best and smartest, others have filled the void to the detrement of the next generation of workers. Most Americans have become job snobs, only seeking out those positions with lots of perks, good health care benefits and a good paycheck. Otherwise, it makes more sense to stay at home and take care of your children. Some have decided to get a job selling some sort of skin care product in a multi-level business. Some opt for collecting disability insurance as their previous career careened off track and made them unable to function in the new technological age. And as a last resort, unemployment insurance and welfare are better than the menial jobs offered at fast food restaurants.
As our good paying jobs continue to get downsized or outsourced, the working population has had a harder and harder time finding jobs that are acceptable. Whether we like it or not, the trend will continue and illegal immigrants will continue to take our labor jobs, and white collar workers will have a much more difficult time finding the job they desire.
The unemployment rate and jobless claims do not reflect the structural changes in the jobs market in the US. The next generation will see major changes and challenges getting good jobs going forward, and the baby boom generation will have to cope with the repercusions of less workers paying social security taxes. Retirement may never come for most as they will need to work longer to pay their medical bills.
The current "jobless recovery" may be just the beginning of a structural change in the US economy and jobs market that will last well into the 21st century. Educational will be a key factor in determining if the next generation has a job or not.
Monday, February 09, 2004
WHILE THE FED's AWAY BUBBLES TO PLAY
The warnings are getting boring. Like the 5, or was it 6, Orange Terror Alerts, that have all ended with no attack. The Bears on Wall Street, myself included, continue to point out the warning signs and dangers that abound in the economic "chatter", yet the equity markets continue to reach higher and the investing public keeps going about its normal business of pumping money into their mutual funds. The dishonest economic propaganda that comes from the Bush administration daily fuels there confidence and hopes. All the while, seemingly smart and informed economists and strategists jump up and down warning that an attack of sorts is imminent.
Morgan Stanleys proverbial chicken little recently opined that the Feds easy money policy, while being effective near term, has unfortunately resulted in some unwanted by-products. In his words, "this approach has another worrisome by-product: It has become a breeding ground for a string of additional asset bubbles that have come on the scene in the aftermath of the burst equity bubble. That’s not just true of property but also of bonds, credit instruments, emerging market debt, and tech stocks (again). This multiple-bubble syndrome is strikingly reminiscent of the moral hazard play that became central to the Great Bubble of the late 1990s — the recognition on the part of investors and speculators that Fed accommodation was here to stay. As long as the Fed takes interest-rate risk out of the equation, one bubble begets another. "
I know we have been hearing about bubbles for awhile now, but eventually, the reality of the matter will become apparent, and as usual it will be in hindsight and will hurt that much more. So as the FED has promised to be "patient" it is also allowing the animal instincts to run wild and encouraging the stock market to inflate. When the FED decides to come home and take away the liquidity, there will be hell to pay for all the bubbles they blew.
The warnings are getting boring. Like the 5, or was it 6, Orange Terror Alerts, that have all ended with no attack. The Bears on Wall Street, myself included, continue to point out the warning signs and dangers that abound in the economic "chatter", yet the equity markets continue to reach higher and the investing public keeps going about its normal business of pumping money into their mutual funds. The dishonest economic propaganda that comes from the Bush administration daily fuels there confidence and hopes. All the while, seemingly smart and informed economists and strategists jump up and down warning that an attack of sorts is imminent.
Morgan Stanleys proverbial chicken little recently opined that the Feds easy money policy, while being effective near term, has unfortunately resulted in some unwanted by-products. In his words, "this approach has another worrisome by-product: It has become a breeding ground for a string of additional asset bubbles that have come on the scene in the aftermath of the burst equity bubble. That’s not just true of property but also of bonds, credit instruments, emerging market debt, and tech stocks (again). This multiple-bubble syndrome is strikingly reminiscent of the moral hazard play that became central to the Great Bubble of the late 1990s — the recognition on the part of investors and speculators that Fed accommodation was here to stay. As long as the Fed takes interest-rate risk out of the equation, one bubble begets another. "
I know we have been hearing about bubbles for awhile now, but eventually, the reality of the matter will become apparent, and as usual it will be in hindsight and will hurt that much more. So as the FED has promised to be "patient" it is also allowing the animal instincts to run wild and encouraging the stock market to inflate. When the FED decides to come home and take away the liquidity, there will be hell to pay for all the bubbles they blew.
Monday, February 02, 2004
SHOCK & AWEful SuperBowl Prono...Spreading Democarcy & Americana
Shock and Awe has come to the most watched prime time sports event that the American media broadcasts. Justin Timberlake and Janet Jackson acted out a "soft porn rape scene" as 89 million Americans, including children, watched the half time show during Super Bowl XXXVIII. Disgusting, outrageous, immoral, repugnant, rude, raunchy, offensive, inappropriate, inconsiderate, and on and on. No 'sexually explicit' content warning. No apology from the NFL or CBS. Nothing but another abuse of national broadcast licenses and the audiences that trust the networks to honor their committment to upholding proper television ethics.
While we send our soldiers around the world to spread Democracy and American values, we continue to show why we are hated and not welcome in most places we go. America is viewed as the 'Great Satan' by the religious regions of the world due to our reprehensible behavior. Other parts of the world want nothing to do with our extreme liberal value system, where anything and everything goes and nobody is responsible for any of the ills that fall upon them.
America used to be represented by baseball, hotdogs, apple pie and chevrolet. Now, look what America is represented by. Overwhelming military power. Presidents that lie and abscure to maintain there power and authority. A population of professional consumers. Reality TV filled with contrived love affairs, outrageous and disgusting stunts, self abuse and immorality. Marriage opened up to allow for same sex unions. Two income families that can't make ends meet and are filing for personal bankruptcy at unprecedented rates. Corporate fraud confounding every regulatory agency and violating the trust of the public at large. The Catholic church scandal and child abuse issues continue to taint our religious foundation. Entertainment and sports icons displaying unconscionable behaviors on a daily basis, corrupting what our children see and hear.
During the Super Bowl, the advertisements were for the most consumed products in the United States and all wre targeted at our misguided youth and unconcious adult population. One ad executive said it like this. "The humor has just gotten to such a base level," said Steven Addis, chief executive of the Addis Group branding agency, shortly after Sunday night's game. "There seems to be an unwritten rule in advertising that men can only be spoken to in a stupid way." Ads for sexual disfunction drugs, automobiles, beer, soda, credit cards and job searches dominated the football timeouts. Many with a sexual conotation or bathroom type humor.
Is this what we are trying to spread around the world? Is this what we think other countries and governments want for their populations? Is this what we want for our country?
I am personally appalled at what I saw last night, and it just adds to my view that America has become the Roman Empire of the 21st century. We worship idolic images. We value large screen plasma TV's. We have no regard for our children. We act imperialistic. The American dream is turning into a bad nightmare.
Shock and Awe has come to the most watched prime time sports event that the American media broadcasts. Justin Timberlake and Janet Jackson acted out a "soft porn rape scene" as 89 million Americans, including children, watched the half time show during Super Bowl XXXVIII. Disgusting, outrageous, immoral, repugnant, rude, raunchy, offensive, inappropriate, inconsiderate, and on and on. No 'sexually explicit' content warning. No apology from the NFL or CBS. Nothing but another abuse of national broadcast licenses and the audiences that trust the networks to honor their committment to upholding proper television ethics.
While we send our soldiers around the world to spread Democracy and American values, we continue to show why we are hated and not welcome in most places we go. America is viewed as the 'Great Satan' by the religious regions of the world due to our reprehensible behavior. Other parts of the world want nothing to do with our extreme liberal value system, where anything and everything goes and nobody is responsible for any of the ills that fall upon them.
America used to be represented by baseball, hotdogs, apple pie and chevrolet. Now, look what America is represented by. Overwhelming military power. Presidents that lie and abscure to maintain there power and authority. A population of professional consumers. Reality TV filled with contrived love affairs, outrageous and disgusting stunts, self abuse and immorality. Marriage opened up to allow for same sex unions. Two income families that can't make ends meet and are filing for personal bankruptcy at unprecedented rates. Corporate fraud confounding every regulatory agency and violating the trust of the public at large. The Catholic church scandal and child abuse issues continue to taint our religious foundation. Entertainment and sports icons displaying unconscionable behaviors on a daily basis, corrupting what our children see and hear.
During the Super Bowl, the advertisements were for the most consumed products in the United States and all wre targeted at our misguided youth and unconcious adult population. One ad executive said it like this. "The humor has just gotten to such a base level," said Steven Addis, chief executive of the Addis Group branding agency, shortly after Sunday night's game. "There seems to be an unwritten rule in advertising that men can only be spoken to in a stupid way." Ads for sexual disfunction drugs, automobiles, beer, soda, credit cards and job searches dominated the football timeouts. Many with a sexual conotation or bathroom type humor.
Is this what we are trying to spread around the world? Is this what we think other countries and governments want for their populations? Is this what we want for our country?
I am personally appalled at what I saw last night, and it just adds to my view that America has become the Roman Empire of the 21st century. We worship idolic images. We value large screen plasma TV's. We have no regard for our children. We act imperialistic. The American dream is turning into a bad nightmare.
Thursday, January 22, 2004
DOW = NIKKEI...but the US is not JAPAN
With both indexes at roughly the same numeric valuation (10,500) it seemed like a good time to do a comparative analysis to see if its anything other than coincidence. For purposes of an historical perspective, the NIKKEI average rose from below 10,000 to 40,000 during its boom that ended sometime in the late 1980's. Following that came a period of nearly 20 years where the Japanese economy and stock market went into a tailspin where deflation and recession persisted till about last year. The NIKKEI bottomed at around 7,000 in early 2003 and has since rallied to its current level of around 10,500 up nearly 50% from its lows.
By comparison, the DOW peaked in 2000 at around 11,000 after rising for about 18 years from a starting point of around 1,000. Then the US bubble popped and it began a decent to around 7,000 before bottoming and beginning its own 50% move up to its current level of around 10,500. Since the US is not Japan, in any way shape or form, at least according to most economists and wall street strategists, our much more fundamentally sound and resilient economy halted the decline relatively quickly and rebounded in record speed.
Unlike the slow to react Japanese government, the US government responded to the economic problems with emergency tax relief, twice extended unemployment benefits, huge government spending, initiating wars in Afghanistan & Iraq, some more tax relief, pension funding relief holiday for large US corporations, and encouraged the Federal Reserve Bank to lower US interest rates 13 times to the lowest levels in 50 years with the promise of leaving them there for a considerable period of time. All of which kept and continues to keep debt laden US consumers spending and borrowing at unprecedented rates.
Japan's government opted for the long and drawn out process of economic repair by allowing for a painfully long recession including rampant deflation, bankruptcies, bad debt writeoffs and huge corporate restructurings and reorganizations. I will assume that the Japanese government was either unaware or unable to utilize the economic 'tool box' the US government used in order to repair our broken bubble in only 3 years while it took nearly 20 years to repair the Japanese economy.
The FED says that inflationary and deflationary forces are in balance and that due to the existence of "slack" in the labor markets, rates can stay put and the free money policy will remain...at least until President Bush is re-elected. Treasury Secretary, John Snow, claims we stand by a 'strong dollar' policy yet our dollar has fallen to record low levels vs. the yen, euro and sterling reflecting a sort of vote of "no confidence" in our twin deficit economic policy.
The fact our stock market has rallied sharply from its recent lows is a trophy to the FED chairman's liquidity campaign and to the Presidents political propaganda machine convincing the American investor that all is back on track for a new boomtime. False hope for sure as the biggest boom and bubble cannot be popped and restored in such a short period of time regardless of the words being said and policies being forced into the system.
In any other country, our reckless financial management and manipulation would have caused hyper-inflation and currency destruction. Yet here in the omnipotent US, it is seen as sound fiscal policy?! I think not, and shortly, our equity markets will realize this and resume the bear market and retrace the gains of the 2003 and much of the 1990's bubble valuations, just like Japan did, before it recovered.
One thing in the US economy that has gotten remarkably similar to something that happened in Japan during its long boom, is the prices and sales activity in the US real estate market, a lot like what happened in Japan prior to its longterm bear market. The fact that our stock markets are now at the same numeric valuation is some sort of fluke that will not remain for long. America is not Japan. The Dow is not the NIKKEI. The Dollar is not the Yen. The Bear market in the US is not over yet.
With both indexes at roughly the same numeric valuation (10,500) it seemed like a good time to do a comparative analysis to see if its anything other than coincidence. For purposes of an historical perspective, the NIKKEI average rose from below 10,000 to 40,000 during its boom that ended sometime in the late 1980's. Following that came a period of nearly 20 years where the Japanese economy and stock market went into a tailspin where deflation and recession persisted till about last year. The NIKKEI bottomed at around 7,000 in early 2003 and has since rallied to its current level of around 10,500 up nearly 50% from its lows.
By comparison, the DOW peaked in 2000 at around 11,000 after rising for about 18 years from a starting point of around 1,000. Then the US bubble popped and it began a decent to around 7,000 before bottoming and beginning its own 50% move up to its current level of around 10,500. Since the US is not Japan, in any way shape or form, at least according to most economists and wall street strategists, our much more fundamentally sound and resilient economy halted the decline relatively quickly and rebounded in record speed.
Unlike the slow to react Japanese government, the US government responded to the economic problems with emergency tax relief, twice extended unemployment benefits, huge government spending, initiating wars in Afghanistan & Iraq, some more tax relief, pension funding relief holiday for large US corporations, and encouraged the Federal Reserve Bank to lower US interest rates 13 times to the lowest levels in 50 years with the promise of leaving them there for a considerable period of time. All of which kept and continues to keep debt laden US consumers spending and borrowing at unprecedented rates.
Japan's government opted for the long and drawn out process of economic repair by allowing for a painfully long recession including rampant deflation, bankruptcies, bad debt writeoffs and huge corporate restructurings and reorganizations. I will assume that the Japanese government was either unaware or unable to utilize the economic 'tool box' the US government used in order to repair our broken bubble in only 3 years while it took nearly 20 years to repair the Japanese economy.
The FED says that inflationary and deflationary forces are in balance and that due to the existence of "slack" in the labor markets, rates can stay put and the free money policy will remain...at least until President Bush is re-elected. Treasury Secretary, John Snow, claims we stand by a 'strong dollar' policy yet our dollar has fallen to record low levels vs. the yen, euro and sterling reflecting a sort of vote of "no confidence" in our twin deficit economic policy.
The fact our stock market has rallied sharply from its recent lows is a trophy to the FED chairman's liquidity campaign and to the Presidents political propaganda machine convincing the American investor that all is back on track for a new boomtime. False hope for sure as the biggest boom and bubble cannot be popped and restored in such a short period of time regardless of the words being said and policies being forced into the system.
In any other country, our reckless financial management and manipulation would have caused hyper-inflation and currency destruction. Yet here in the omnipotent US, it is seen as sound fiscal policy?! I think not, and shortly, our equity markets will realize this and resume the bear market and retrace the gains of the 2003 and much of the 1990's bubble valuations, just like Japan did, before it recovered.
One thing in the US economy that has gotten remarkably similar to something that happened in Japan during its long boom, is the prices and sales activity in the US real estate market, a lot like what happened in Japan prior to its longterm bear market. The fact that our stock markets are now at the same numeric valuation is some sort of fluke that will not remain for long. America is not Japan. The Dow is not the NIKKEI. The Dollar is not the Yen. The Bear market in the US is not over yet.
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
1987 ON HIGH SPEED ACCESS...THE BIG KAHUNA
Did you have high speed internet access in 1987? Me neither. Isn't technology great? Today I can access the internet from my cell phone, I can e-mail you from my Blackberry, I can get instant alerts on my PDA. And I can do it all very fast from anywhere. What a world we live in. Some people say they are always "in touch" and can be reached anytime of day or night on any one of a number of devices that keep them connected to their business, friends, & loved ones.
While all the connectivity may be good for business and for staying in touch with your spouse, there may be one problem that nobody is thinking about. Being connected may let too many people know about, and act upon, a stock market correction or crash, faster than anybody might like.
In 1987, one of the biggest problems, other than the market dropping 23% in a single day, was that investors could not get through to there brokers or mutual fund companies to place orders, which were mostly to sell. By the time the dust settled, many investors were locked out of trading and it was too late to sell or buy anything. Today, with all the high speed internet connections, cell phones, PDA's, blackberry pagers and the like, everybody will know what's happening at the same time, and will be able to act upon that information, in real time and very fast. No broker to call or mutual fund hold messages to annoy you. Just hit the "enter" key and its done.
Since 1987, the NYSE and the NASDAQ marketplace have ramped up there trading capacity by many fold, which would allow huge amounts of volume to be executed by the masses. Yes there are market triggers that would halt trading at various stages of a large market move, yet that would only temporarily stop the deluge of sell orders coming in from every DSL line and cable modem that has been installed over the past few years.
A high speed access, fully connected 1987 style crash would look very different. Volume would be enormous. For example, if volume were to jump say 5x normal, some 8 billion shares would trade on the NYSE and about 10 billion on the NASDAQ. What's amazing is that the new systems in place could probably handle it. Volatility would be historic, as sellers and buyers would be able to "get through" and place orders at an unbelievable speed, allowing for great trading action and potentially great profits and losses.
I do not know how the market triggers would hurt or help, but suffice to say, that traders and investors would not rely on those stop gap measures to see how and even if they would stem the declines. When I think about a 2004 market crash, it is not only scary but exciting as well, because nobody knows how it would look or feel. If its anything like surfing the web, I think the "Big Kahuna" will be an apt way for it to be described.
Did you have high speed internet access in 1987? Me neither. Isn't technology great? Today I can access the internet from my cell phone, I can e-mail you from my Blackberry, I can get instant alerts on my PDA. And I can do it all very fast from anywhere. What a world we live in. Some people say they are always "in touch" and can be reached anytime of day or night on any one of a number of devices that keep them connected to their business, friends, & loved ones.
While all the connectivity may be good for business and for staying in touch with your spouse, there may be one problem that nobody is thinking about. Being connected may let too many people know about, and act upon, a stock market correction or crash, faster than anybody might like.
In 1987, one of the biggest problems, other than the market dropping 23% in a single day, was that investors could not get through to there brokers or mutual fund companies to place orders, which were mostly to sell. By the time the dust settled, many investors were locked out of trading and it was too late to sell or buy anything. Today, with all the high speed internet connections, cell phones, PDA's, blackberry pagers and the like, everybody will know what's happening at the same time, and will be able to act upon that information, in real time and very fast. No broker to call or mutual fund hold messages to annoy you. Just hit the "enter" key and its done.
Since 1987, the NYSE and the NASDAQ marketplace have ramped up there trading capacity by many fold, which would allow huge amounts of volume to be executed by the masses. Yes there are market triggers that would halt trading at various stages of a large market move, yet that would only temporarily stop the deluge of sell orders coming in from every DSL line and cable modem that has been installed over the past few years.
A high speed access, fully connected 1987 style crash would look very different. Volume would be enormous. For example, if volume were to jump say 5x normal, some 8 billion shares would trade on the NYSE and about 10 billion on the NASDAQ. What's amazing is that the new systems in place could probably handle it. Volatility would be historic, as sellers and buyers would be able to "get through" and place orders at an unbelievable speed, allowing for great trading action and potentially great profits and losses.
I do not know how the market triggers would hurt or help, but suffice to say, that traders and investors would not rely on those stop gap measures to see how and even if they would stem the declines. When I think about a 2004 market crash, it is not only scary but exciting as well, because nobody knows how it would look or feel. If its anything like surfing the web, I think the "Big Kahuna" will be an apt way for it to be described.
"THE FEEL GOOD PRESIDENT"
How do you feel about President Bush? If you are like most, at least according to every poll taken recently, it seems fairly clear that you, along with most Americans, like George W. Bush. Even if you don't like all his policies, or think he could use some grammar lessons, for the most part, we all think he's doing a pretty good job of keeping America safe and fostering an environment of renewed economic prosperity.
Reality and perception can differ a bit, or a lot, and while the perception of late, is that things at home are safer and more prosperous, the reality might not be so rosy. Far be it for me to be the downer, but is the country really safer now than it was before 9/11 and our multiple victories in Afghanistan and Iraq? And, is the economy really doing better? In every public comment to the media and the American people, President Bush states that we are safer, and we are back on the economic road to prosperity.
Yet, Secretary of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge, has stated many times that we are still at war and that we must remain vigilant and on guard as terrorists are still plotting to attack us in our country and abroad. IN fact, we remain at a state of 'Yellow' on the terror threat level, which represents an elevated state of alert for a terrorist attack. In the two countries where we have invaded and installed new security and democratic rule, Afghanistan and Iraq, the security situation has remained as dangerous as ever. US soldiers and indigenous civilians have come under continuous attacks even while we claim victory and success in those initial battles in the war against terror. And as recently as late December 2003, the US was put on a state of 'Orange' alert for a terror attack, the 5th time since the 9/11 attacks. I would argue that we are not safer or more secure than we were before 9/11 and the President's political propaganda is just a way to keep his adoring public feeling happy and at ease.
As for the economy, while the President says that the economy is recovering, and he won't be satisfied until everyone who wants a job has one, including illegal immigrants, many of his top advisers and Cabinet Secretary's signal something different. In fact, the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, has left interest rates at there lowest level in 50 years even while the economy posted 8.2% GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2003. Secretary of Labor, Elaine Choa, says that the labor market will pick up as the economy continues to improve, yet the unemployed are remaining so for longer and longer periods of time, and the last extension of unemployment benefits has recently run out. Corporations are still outsourcing jobs to India and the cost cutting, also known as layoffs, at major US corporations has only slowed down rather than stopped.
Secretary of Treasury, John Snow, while claiming we have a "strong dollar policy" watches as the dollar continues to lose value, which he secretly hopes will continue to goose US corporate earnings and sales overseas, even while it is forcing oil and other commodity prices higher. Mr. Snow also states that the economy is improved, yet cautions that there is still much work to do in order to get the economy onto a 'sustainable growth path".
All the while, President Bush, and his Chief Strategist, Carl Rove, scheme to figure out which voter block they can appeal to next. Constituents interested in the exploration of space got there bone last week. That was on the heals of the nations new Illegal Immigrant work program policy shift. Medicare recipients were tricked into believing that the prescription drug benefit was for there benefit. No child left behind was a Democratic policy program adopted by the newly caring Republican party. I am sure that Carl Rove is devising other programs to woe each and every American into the Bush party for a landslide election in the fall.
The facts and the reality are much more sobering then all the "feel good" propaganda and political rhetoric that comes out of the White House. Time is clearly on the Presidents side, as the elections are only 8 months away, yet we will all have to live with the reckless economic and foriegn policies that have been forced onto the American people over the last 3 years far beyond President Bush's 2nd term.
How do you feel about President Bush? If you are like most, at least according to every poll taken recently, it seems fairly clear that you, along with most Americans, like George W. Bush. Even if you don't like all his policies, or think he could use some grammar lessons, for the most part, we all think he's doing a pretty good job of keeping America safe and fostering an environment of renewed economic prosperity.
Reality and perception can differ a bit, or a lot, and while the perception of late, is that things at home are safer and more prosperous, the reality might not be so rosy. Far be it for me to be the downer, but is the country really safer now than it was before 9/11 and our multiple victories in Afghanistan and Iraq? And, is the economy really doing better? In every public comment to the media and the American people, President Bush states that we are safer, and we are back on the economic road to prosperity.
Yet, Secretary of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge, has stated many times that we are still at war and that we must remain vigilant and on guard as terrorists are still plotting to attack us in our country and abroad. IN fact, we remain at a state of 'Yellow' on the terror threat level, which represents an elevated state of alert for a terrorist attack. In the two countries where we have invaded and installed new security and democratic rule, Afghanistan and Iraq, the security situation has remained as dangerous as ever. US soldiers and indigenous civilians have come under continuous attacks even while we claim victory and success in those initial battles in the war against terror. And as recently as late December 2003, the US was put on a state of 'Orange' alert for a terror attack, the 5th time since the 9/11 attacks. I would argue that we are not safer or more secure than we were before 9/11 and the President's political propaganda is just a way to keep his adoring public feeling happy and at ease.
As for the economy, while the President says that the economy is recovering, and he won't be satisfied until everyone who wants a job has one, including illegal immigrants, many of his top advisers and Cabinet Secretary's signal something different. In fact, the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, has left interest rates at there lowest level in 50 years even while the economy posted 8.2% GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2003. Secretary of Labor, Elaine Choa, says that the labor market will pick up as the economy continues to improve, yet the unemployed are remaining so for longer and longer periods of time, and the last extension of unemployment benefits has recently run out. Corporations are still outsourcing jobs to India and the cost cutting, also known as layoffs, at major US corporations has only slowed down rather than stopped.
Secretary of Treasury, John Snow, while claiming we have a "strong dollar policy" watches as the dollar continues to lose value, which he secretly hopes will continue to goose US corporate earnings and sales overseas, even while it is forcing oil and other commodity prices higher. Mr. Snow also states that the economy is improved, yet cautions that there is still much work to do in order to get the economy onto a 'sustainable growth path".
All the while, President Bush, and his Chief Strategist, Carl Rove, scheme to figure out which voter block they can appeal to next. Constituents interested in the exploration of space got there bone last week. That was on the heals of the nations new Illegal Immigrant work program policy shift. Medicare recipients were tricked into believing that the prescription drug benefit was for there benefit. No child left behind was a Democratic policy program adopted by the newly caring Republican party. I am sure that Carl Rove is devising other programs to woe each and every American into the Bush party for a landslide election in the fall.
The facts and the reality are much more sobering then all the "feel good" propaganda and political rhetoric that comes out of the White House. Time is clearly on the Presidents side, as the elections are only 8 months away, yet we will all have to live with the reckless economic and foriegn policies that have been forced onto the American people over the last 3 years far beyond President Bush's 2nd term.