RALLY IS OVER...LOOK OUT BELOW!

hopefully you have enjoyed the mini-bull market we have experienced since the war began. now its time to get ready for the war to begin for real and it wont help the market add to its gains. in fact, i believe the news flow will change dramatically for the worse and president bush will not be able to passify investors when it happens. as much as our leaders are telling us how well things are progressing in iraq, the war is getting out of control and very "off plan". we are fed a constant flow of conflicting reports from u.s. media presenting a positive 'spin' on the war progress, while non-u.s media interprets the news in an un-biased and often un-american way. each and every bit of information coming from the front is subject to wildly varying interpretation and analysis, none of which helps much in understanding whats really happening.

soon, that news will turn very bad by all interpretations as the battle for bahgdad begins and our soldiers start to be killed in large numbers. saddam hasnt been detered, and may in fact be emboldened by the world outrage at the u.s. aggression. now he has a chance to go down in history as the arab leader that defeated the american invaders. this is basically saddams nirvana for a perfect ending. my guess is he will not let any of his prophets down. i hope our soldiers and leaders can take it. unfortunately, the market will not be able to.

have a grateful day!

larry