THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY DON'T!

lots of news, lots of commentary, lots of speculation, and lots of uncertainty. friday march 7th and nothing has changed.

the most significant news that was made today had nothing to do with iraq, osama bin laden, or north korea. the data released on the state of the US labor market was a very significant datapoint that will hold the keys to the US economy for the next 6-12 months. in fact, i believe it will be looked back on as the start of a NEW recessionary period, the dreaded double-dip is upon us. war with iraq, capture of terrorists, or compliance by kim jong il will have NO EFFECT on how we spend our money or live our lives. it hasnt so far and it wont going forward. having a job will!

consumers havent stopped buying cars or houses during our march towards war with iraq or even during the scary orange alert periods. a snowstorm here and there has kept us from the malls but now that the snow is gone and spring is upon us, those of us lucky enough to still have a job or some credit left will be back shopping and doing what we do best...consume. high gas prices may eat into our consumption a bit but i'm sure we'll figure out how to leverage our earnings or assets to buy all that we want.

as for us caring if the war is 3 days or 3 months, i dont think we will care much. businesses may act more cautiously but as soon as the smoke clears, they will spend again as well. what will not change is the weakness in the general economic climate and the deteriorating asset base that all americans have experienced as a result of the 3 year bear market. add to that continued uncertainty about war and terrorism and well, things will remain the same...DEPRESSED. not soft, not sluggish, not cautiously optimistic or any other mollifying adjective trying to explain whats really going on. just plain old DEPRESSED.

i know you feel it. i feel it and i see it. i hear it everyday from clients, friends and family members. the capture of osama or his sons, the conquering of iraq, or some other geopolitical resolution to any number of various problems around the world wont fix whats wrong with the US economy or our personal finances. we are all working off the leftover debt and big lifestyles of the boom time. and that may take some more time rather than the domination of the world.

have a grateful day!

larry