HOW'S YOUR Gross Personal Production?

i know its a personal question but it may be a much more important economic indicator than the GDP or gross domestic production data point that the government and economists use to determine the health of the economy. i can speak for myself, and my GPP has definitely not grown in the last 3 months. in fact, my GPP hasnt grown for about 2 years now and i dont think it will change any time soon. so i dont know where this GDP growth is coming from but if we are growing, i would hate to see what a contraction feels like.

today the government reported that in the first 3 months of 2003 the u.s. economy grew (and thats using the word very loosely) at a 1.6% rate. thats after a similarly unspectacular 1.4% rate of growth in the 4th quarter of 2002. in fact, since the recession of 2001 ended in the 4th quarter of 2001(the same quarter that gave us the 9/11 attack) the u.s. economy has grown at a average 2.66% rate, well below what our fed chief believes is a normal rate of growth, if we were in a "true" economic recovery. even as the u.s. federal reserve has continously "insured" and "assured" that the recovery would continue, it has not been able to get the growth up to speed. and in the process, the fed has also risked potential long-term damage to the economy by using monetary policy to correct market bubbles.

now we face the distinct possibility of trending back down into another recession. i've harped on this a bit because i hear way too much "hopeful" or "hypeful" optimism from so many well respected and highly regarded sources that we all get convinced that things are better than we think or feel and that we should just go with it and believe.

the economic and geopolitical "newsflow" seems to have turned or as some would say "its gotten less bad", i love that. so since the "head pounding" has eased up a bit, it doesnt hurt so much. i guess everything is relative, but relative to the boom times, this flatter pace of growth is relatively terrible!

it seems obvious to me that not many people i speak with are experiencing anything but contracting paychecks, challenging business environments, higher costs of operating those businesses and higher costs of living, despite what the government says about inflation, it costs more to live. i hear less people seeking investment oppportunities, partly because they have less money to invest and partly because they are "nursing" their currently distressed investments. business leaders are reflecting this sentiment and so are the consumer sentiment readings.

with that as the backdrop, how can we look forward to anything but a continuation of the "repair strategy" from the bubble economy. that will include, but will not be limited to, more corporate bankruptcies, continued high levels of personal bankruptcies, higher unemployment levels, and continued use of cashflows, both corporate and personal, to pay down debts accumulated during the boom. that last point is very important. profits and savings will be used to pay down debt rather than to expand business or increase consumption. that will continue to be an "anchor" holding back the economy and any potential recovery.

GDP, schme, dee, pee. my GPP is declining and i know i'm not alone. so dont give me government stats and tell me that things are OK. not only wont i buy that but i wont be buying anything else for awhile either.

have a grateful day!

larry