COUNTING ON THE "SHORTS"

lots of market strategists are counting on the "shorts" to add buying pressure to the markets recent run-up. the so called "melt-up" scenario where stocks vault higher as short sellers and long buyers all get on the stock buying locomotive to launch the market higher...much higher, is a widely held hope on the part of the bulls. counting on that might be the last BIG mistake these perma-bulls and market optimists make in the ongoing bear market that we are still in.

why you might ask? well, being firmly in the "bear camp" i continue to be encouraged and bolstered in my dismal outlook and pessimistic views of the future by the economic data that gets worse and worse. i know that it "always seems darkest before the dawn" and that "a bottom has to be put in sometime" and "all the bad news is baked in" and that we are "closer to the bottom than the top" and all those other bull mantra's that sedate and pacify investors. but the facts remain very clear...the economy is tilting towards another downturn (that would be a RECESSION) and nothing that happens in iraq will change those facts.

so hoping and in some cases praying for the shorts to save your portfolio from further capital destruction may well prove to be another error made by the masses and professionals as they all hope the bear market ends with a surge of enthusiasm upon saddams death or any other non-economic factor that will not improve business revenues, earnings, debt burdens, capital spending, hiring or any of the other real problems that are ailing the economy. so dont count on the shorts for a better market.

have a grateful day!

larry