GRACEFULLY FALLING ON YOUR M-16
Dear Mr. President,
For the good of the troops and as a show of loyalty to you, my Commander in Chief, I hereby submit my letter of resignation as Secretary of Defense of the United States. I have tried to faithfully serve the American people using my experience and military expertise, yet I have failed in so many ways. I was wrong when I recommended invading Iraq prior to completing the War in Afghanistan. I was wrong on the level of troops necessary to successfully secure Iraq. I was wrong about how much it would cost to fight the war and secure the country. I was wrong about what would happen in the aftermath of a successful military invasion of Iraq. I was wrong about how the capture of Saddam Hussien would effect the Iraqi people. I was wrong to not more thoroughly investigate the prison abuse scandal, and I was deficient when I chose not to bring the situation to your immediate attention. I have been wrong about many things and it would be wrong if I didn't resign.
Thanks you for supporting me up until the end.
Your loyal friend,
Donald Rumsfeld
Monday, May 10, 2004
The Bears That Cried CRASH
We all know the story of the Boy That Cried Wolf. A little boy looking for some attention from the people around him made up a story about a Wolf. After a few 'false alarms' the people stopped paying attention. Just then a Wolf did show up and attacked the people even as the boy warned them that now there really was a Wolf. A famous fairy tale that is used by all of us with our own children to prevent them from telling stories or outright lying, so that when there is real trouble or a problem, we believe them and don't ignore something that truly needs our attention.
For the past year, the well known perma-bears and some other less reviled strategists, have been 'crying' about an economic environment that is unstable and off balance due to many things, which I will not list here, as they are just plain old depressing and have been discussed ad-nauseum in my previous writings. Yet, as the market has been rewarding ignorance and denial of these well known economic issues, investors have been disregarding them. Some very smart investors such as George Soros, Warren Buffet, Sir John Templeton, Robert Rubin, Bill Gross, and other previously well followed market mavens have sounded warning bells, yet investors continue to ignore the warnings. Now, when the proverbial Wolf may very well be upon us, clearly noone is listening.
So far, the market action makes their warnings seem senseless and unwarranted, but that is not because they are not valid. It is because the collective investment community, aided and abetted by the FED and the Bush administration continue to pull increasingly more dangerous economic maneuvers to keep the economic data 'plates' spinning. Hopefully, the analogy is clear. In a circus we watch the juggler put 1 plate up on a stick, then the next and the next until he has 7,8,9, even 10 plates spinning. It is amazing and the crowd ohh's and ahh's with each additional plate. It takes some time to get them all up and going, but at the end of the performance, the plates come crashing down all at once. The show is terrific and the ending is a mess.
Back to the bears and the Wolf, even though the Wolf is clearly knocking on the door, the Bulls don't care and continue to ignore the warnings. The only ending can be a horrible mess for all involved.
We all know the story of the Boy That Cried Wolf. A little boy looking for some attention from the people around him made up a story about a Wolf. After a few 'false alarms' the people stopped paying attention. Just then a Wolf did show up and attacked the people even as the boy warned them that now there really was a Wolf. A famous fairy tale that is used by all of us with our own children to prevent them from telling stories or outright lying, so that when there is real trouble or a problem, we believe them and don't ignore something that truly needs our attention.
For the past year, the well known perma-bears and some other less reviled strategists, have been 'crying' about an economic environment that is unstable and off balance due to many things, which I will not list here, as they are just plain old depressing and have been discussed ad-nauseum in my previous writings. Yet, as the market has been rewarding ignorance and denial of these well known economic issues, investors have been disregarding them. Some very smart investors such as George Soros, Warren Buffet, Sir John Templeton, Robert Rubin, Bill Gross, and other previously well followed market mavens have sounded warning bells, yet investors continue to ignore the warnings. Now, when the proverbial Wolf may very well be upon us, clearly noone is listening.
So far, the market action makes their warnings seem senseless and unwarranted, but that is not because they are not valid. It is because the collective investment community, aided and abetted by the FED and the Bush administration continue to pull increasingly more dangerous economic maneuvers to keep the economic data 'plates' spinning. Hopefully, the analogy is clear. In a circus we watch the juggler put 1 plate up on a stick, then the next and the next until he has 7,8,9, even 10 plates spinning. It is amazing and the crowd ohh's and ahh's with each additional plate. It takes some time to get them all up and going, but at the end of the performance, the plates come crashing down all at once. The show is terrific and the ending is a mess.
Back to the bears and the Wolf, even though the Wolf is clearly knocking on the door, the Bulls don't care and continue to ignore the warnings. The only ending can be a horrible mess for all involved.
Wednesday, May 05, 2004
PATIENCE WEARING THIN
The FED has all but run out of verbiage to use in its famous FED statements. It is the most widely read government agency press release and its probably the most difficult to interpret, even though its only 2 paragraphs long and contains a mere 143 words. The FED has couched its policy moves in a few of those words. Specifically, "considerable period", "patience", and now, "measured". My guess, along with everybody else's, is that the next statement contains the word "raise" prior to the words "federal funds rate". That would be the signal, that in fact, the FED would be raising rates. Until then, we all wait.
What is very interesting in the recent statements, is the fact that the FED still says that "the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy...is providing important ongoing support to economic activity." That implies that the recovery and subsequent strength in the economic data is NOT self-sustaining. Clearly, the FED still believes that after three quarters of what normally would be considered healthy growth the economy still has not entered an economic cycle that is powering itself. And thus, still needs historic low interest rates to keep the economy supported. Interest rates that in fact, were put in place specifically to counter the effects of the terrorist attack on 9/11/01, the subsequent war on terror, and the ongoing recessionary environment which followed the bear market in stocks. Most of which is far behind us.
Why would the economy still need that "important ongoing support"? How can that be explained and why haven't they explained it more thoroughly? Slack resource use is the verbiage used, but why would that be? Hasn't the excess capacity been absorbed yet? Haven't companies started to rehire all the laid off workers? If not now, when?? What does that say about the health of the economy? What does that show about the FED's policy up until now? Has all the "easy money" been used to just to keep us from falling apart? And how does the FED unwind the situation without slamming all the borrowers on the head? They just told us to get adjustable rate mortgages. Revolving credit is "revolving" faster than ever. Auto loans at 0% are critical to the auto industry, and 35% of automobiles on the road are 'upside-down'.
Many well known and well respected pundits, strategists and economists have been calling for the FED to start raising rates to begin the unwind and to head off inflation. They are reading the same data as the FED, yet they have a different interpretation of the data. These people must see more strength than the FED. The FED has resisted and has in fact disregarded many suggestions, jawboning and signs that they should be moving rates higher to get ahead of the so called curve. Nonetheless, the FED did nothing. It seems they are either scared or confused, or maybe they know something that everybody else doesn't. They certainly are not showing leadership or insight, as many of their strongest supporters are saying that they don't understand what the FED is waiting for. Even Larry Kudlow called out Mr. Greenspan to get moving on rates.
Now we will patiently remain patient as the FED does its calculations and data collection. August is the next FOMC meeting, and they will have lots to digest between now and then. I can't wait to see the next statement, if only for the fact that there will be some different words in it.
The FED has all but run out of verbiage to use in its famous FED statements. It is the most widely read government agency press release and its probably the most difficult to interpret, even though its only 2 paragraphs long and contains a mere 143 words. The FED has couched its policy moves in a few of those words. Specifically, "considerable period", "patience", and now, "measured". My guess, along with everybody else's, is that the next statement contains the word "raise" prior to the words "federal funds rate". That would be the signal, that in fact, the FED would be raising rates. Until then, we all wait.
What is very interesting in the recent statements, is the fact that the FED still says that "the committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy...is providing important ongoing support to economic activity." That implies that the recovery and subsequent strength in the economic data is NOT self-sustaining. Clearly, the FED still believes that after three quarters of what normally would be considered healthy growth the economy still has not entered an economic cycle that is powering itself. And thus, still needs historic low interest rates to keep the economy supported. Interest rates that in fact, were put in place specifically to counter the effects of the terrorist attack on 9/11/01, the subsequent war on terror, and the ongoing recessionary environment which followed the bear market in stocks. Most of which is far behind us.
Why would the economy still need that "important ongoing support"? How can that be explained and why haven't they explained it more thoroughly? Slack resource use is the verbiage used, but why would that be? Hasn't the excess capacity been absorbed yet? Haven't companies started to rehire all the laid off workers? If not now, when?? What does that say about the health of the economy? What does that show about the FED's policy up until now? Has all the "easy money" been used to just to keep us from falling apart? And how does the FED unwind the situation without slamming all the borrowers on the head? They just told us to get adjustable rate mortgages. Revolving credit is "revolving" faster than ever. Auto loans at 0% are critical to the auto industry, and 35% of automobiles on the road are 'upside-down'.
Many well known and well respected pundits, strategists and economists have been calling for the FED to start raising rates to begin the unwind and to head off inflation. They are reading the same data as the FED, yet they have a different interpretation of the data. These people must see more strength than the FED. The FED has resisted and has in fact disregarded many suggestions, jawboning and signs that they should be moving rates higher to get ahead of the so called curve. Nonetheless, the FED did nothing. It seems they are either scared or confused, or maybe they know something that everybody else doesn't. They certainly are not showing leadership or insight, as many of their strongest supporters are saying that they don't understand what the FED is waiting for. Even Larry Kudlow called out Mr. Greenspan to get moving on rates.
Now we will patiently remain patient as the FED does its calculations and data collection. August is the next FOMC meeting, and they will have lots to digest between now and then. I can't wait to see the next statement, if only for the fact that there will be some different words in it.
Monday, April 26, 2004
Casualties of War
It is totally unamerican and quite ridiculous that our government, which decided to invade and take over a country 8000 miles away in the name of democracy and FREEDOM, is now trying to hide the reality and consequences of its actions. Good, bad, or indifferent, for the right reason or fabricated ones, in the name of democracy or anything else, for the bush administration to now try and shield the american people from the casualties of the war is absurd. We are supposedly fighting this war in iraq to free the iraqi people and spread democracy.
So far, the results are terrible. We've closed down a newspaper in iraq because we didn't like what it was saying. We are preventing the american public from seeing the dead soldiers. We have captured the evil dictactor and the country is in virtual chaos. The iraqis and the rest of the arab world has not embraced what we are trying to do, and they are not helping us at all. They resent us now more than ever before and hatered for america is growing. The so called coalition is a coalition of one...the US. The only objective is to secure the second largest oil reserve in the world so that we can secure enough oil to maintain our standard of living and continnue driving gas guzzling SUV's and heat out McMansions! Our country is quickly becoming a mockery, and even our closest allies are questioning our intentions. As for hiding the flag draped casckets of our dead soldiers...shame on you George Bush...god will not forgive you for this or any of your other deceptions or lies. You lied to get us into the war. Now you lie about what is going on in Iraq. And I can only imagine the lies it will take to get us out.
If I were a dead soldier, I would want the truth to be shown and told. The controversy about shielding the American public and the world from seeing photos of coffins is just another in a long list of the casualties of war, which was started under false pretense and mis-information. I hope this all ends soon and without totally destroying our great country.
It is totally unamerican and quite ridiculous that our government, which decided to invade and take over a country 8000 miles away in the name of democracy and FREEDOM, is now trying to hide the reality and consequences of its actions. Good, bad, or indifferent, for the right reason or fabricated ones, in the name of democracy or anything else, for the bush administration to now try and shield the american people from the casualties of the war is absurd. We are supposedly fighting this war in iraq to free the iraqi people and spread democracy.
So far, the results are terrible. We've closed down a newspaper in iraq because we didn't like what it was saying. We are preventing the american public from seeing the dead soldiers. We have captured the evil dictactor and the country is in virtual chaos. The iraqis and the rest of the arab world has not embraced what we are trying to do, and they are not helping us at all. They resent us now more than ever before and hatered for america is growing. The so called coalition is a coalition of one...the US. The only objective is to secure the second largest oil reserve in the world so that we can secure enough oil to maintain our standard of living and continnue driving gas guzzling SUV's and heat out McMansions! Our country is quickly becoming a mockery, and even our closest allies are questioning our intentions. As for hiding the flag draped casckets of our dead soldiers...shame on you George Bush...god will not forgive you for this or any of your other deceptions or lies. You lied to get us into the war. Now you lie about what is going on in Iraq. And I can only imagine the lies it will take to get us out.
If I were a dead soldier, I would want the truth to be shown and told. The controversy about shielding the American public and the world from seeing photos of coffins is just another in a long list of the casualties of war, which was started under false pretense and mis-information. I hope this all ends soon and without totally destroying our great country.
THE BLUR OF DECEPTION
In the course of the last 6 weeks the constant leaks, and at times flood, of new and startling information has brought to light the truth about what really happened before and after september 11, 2001. Even more outrageous, are the revelations of what and how our government proceeded after the attack on our country, and how it convinced the american people and the world what it was doing was a justified response to the attack and was necessary to prevent a future attack on our homeland.
It has become a blur of deception and misinformation strewn with hidden agendas, unsubstantiated claims, twisted motives and unknown outcomes. It was based on faulty information riddled with incorrect evaluations mixed with outright lies and subsequent cover-ups. Almost too much to understand or believe. If you aren't keeping a running tally of who said what to who and when, or who knew what and why they didn't disclose it sooner, or how this leader or that diplomat did not know or not think to ask...it is just utterly incomprehensible.
So many hearings with so many important government officials answering questions and telling stories of what has been happening in the most powerful place in the world, washington d.c. and how it has all led us to where we are today. Important people coming forward with vital information painting a picture of incompetance and mistakes made at the highest levels of our government and intelligence agencies. Failings that began way before 9/11 and continued well through the start of the war in iraq and seemingly continue today.
A blur of deception has confused the american public. As time goes by and all the information has a chance to get digested and understood i am sure many will become outraged. I am proud to be an american citizen and i feel lucky to live in america, but I am not proud of what happened in this country before, during, and after 9/11/01.
In the course of the last 6 weeks the constant leaks, and at times flood, of new and startling information has brought to light the truth about what really happened before and after september 11, 2001. Even more outrageous, are the revelations of what and how our government proceeded after the attack on our country, and how it convinced the american people and the world what it was doing was a justified response to the attack and was necessary to prevent a future attack on our homeland.
It has become a blur of deception and misinformation strewn with hidden agendas, unsubstantiated claims, twisted motives and unknown outcomes. It was based on faulty information riddled with incorrect evaluations mixed with outright lies and subsequent cover-ups. Almost too much to understand or believe. If you aren't keeping a running tally of who said what to who and when, or who knew what and why they didn't disclose it sooner, or how this leader or that diplomat did not know or not think to ask...it is just utterly incomprehensible.
So many hearings with so many important government officials answering questions and telling stories of what has been happening in the most powerful place in the world, washington d.c. and how it has all led us to where we are today. Important people coming forward with vital information painting a picture of incompetance and mistakes made at the highest levels of our government and intelligence agencies. Failings that began way before 9/11 and continued well through the start of the war in iraq and seemingly continue today.
A blur of deception has confused the american public. As time goes by and all the information has a chance to get digested and understood i am sure many will become outraged. I am proud to be an american citizen and i feel lucky to live in america, but I am not proud of what happened in this country before, during, and after 9/11/01.
Saturday, March 06, 2004
TIME TO GET CONTRITE
Martha Stewart was found guilty on 4 counts of conspiring and lying to the government during the investigation of her illegal sales of stock in Imclone Corporation. In the aftermath of the verdict, her arrogance was unbelievable. It is clear to the public and the jurors in this case, that she did something wrong and then lied about it. Martha Stewart committed these crimes with full and complete understanding of the consequences and with the knowledge of the rules & regulations of the stock market system.
You see, Martha Stewart wasn't your everyday, run of the mill CEO. She was at one point in her illustrious career a licensed stock broker. In order to obtain that dubious distinction, and license, one must take a 40 hour course and pass a 4 hour exam. It is known in the industry as Series 7, and if passed allows a person to become a stock broker and get all the spoils that come along with it. An important part of the course and the exam are the concentrated on the rules & regulations regarding insider trading. Martha knew what she was doing was wrong when she did it and afterwards when she lied about doing it.
In addition to the fact that she was a stock broker, with the knowledge that comes along with it, Martha was a sitting Board member of the New York Stock Exchange. I do not know what it takes to become a NYSE board member, but I have to believe it requires a pledge of honesty and integrity, along with a committment to be truthful when giving any type of testimony under oath, especially when it is with the Self Regulatory Organization that governs the NYSE.
Martha knew what she was doing and she deserves to be punished for what she did. She clearly thought she was above it all and was not subject to the rules & regulations that govern fair market activity. She risked her reputation, carrer, and $400,000,000.00 fortune for a mere $240,000.00 of speculative (if she were to lose her entire Imclone investment). She lost that gamble and deserves what is now happening to her. It is very unfortunate that her company employees are going to suffer as well, yet as the decorating diva, she had no regard for their trust either. In hindsight, it was probably never deserved.
Martha Stewart, in her statement after the verdict said, "I am obviously distressed by the jury's verdict but I continue to take comfort in knowing that I have done nothing wrong and that I have the enduring support of my family and friends. "I will appeal the verdict and continue to fight to clear my name. I believe in the fairness of the judicial system and remain confident that I will ultimately prevail." She is still unwilling to admit that she lied and tried to game the system. Her next book will be called..."How to Decorate 12' by 8", and she will write it from inside a Federal Penetentiary. Maybe when she gets out she will tell her adoring fans the truth.
Martha Stewart was found guilty on 4 counts of conspiring and lying to the government during the investigation of her illegal sales of stock in Imclone Corporation. In the aftermath of the verdict, her arrogance was unbelievable. It is clear to the public and the jurors in this case, that she did something wrong and then lied about it. Martha Stewart committed these crimes with full and complete understanding of the consequences and with the knowledge of the rules & regulations of the stock market system.
You see, Martha Stewart wasn't your everyday, run of the mill CEO. She was at one point in her illustrious career a licensed stock broker. In order to obtain that dubious distinction, and license, one must take a 40 hour course and pass a 4 hour exam. It is known in the industry as Series 7, and if passed allows a person to become a stock broker and get all the spoils that come along with it. An important part of the course and the exam are the concentrated on the rules & regulations regarding insider trading. Martha knew what she was doing was wrong when she did it and afterwards when she lied about doing it.
In addition to the fact that she was a stock broker, with the knowledge that comes along with it, Martha was a sitting Board member of the New York Stock Exchange. I do not know what it takes to become a NYSE board member, but I have to believe it requires a pledge of honesty and integrity, along with a committment to be truthful when giving any type of testimony under oath, especially when it is with the Self Regulatory Organization that governs the NYSE.
Martha knew what she was doing and she deserves to be punished for what she did. She clearly thought she was above it all and was not subject to the rules & regulations that govern fair market activity. She risked her reputation, carrer, and $400,000,000.00 fortune for a mere $240,000.00 of speculative (if she were to lose her entire Imclone investment). She lost that gamble and deserves what is now happening to her. It is very unfortunate that her company employees are going to suffer as well, yet as the decorating diva, she had no regard for their trust either. In hindsight, it was probably never deserved.
Martha Stewart, in her statement after the verdict said, "I am obviously distressed by the jury's verdict but I continue to take comfort in knowing that I have done nothing wrong and that I have the enduring support of my family and friends. "I will appeal the verdict and continue to fight to clear my name. I believe in the fairness of the judicial system and remain confident that I will ultimately prevail." She is still unwilling to admit that she lied and tried to game the system. Her next book will be called..."How to Decorate 12' by 8", and she will write it from inside a Federal Penetentiary. Maybe when she gets out she will tell her adoring fans the truth.