MORE RISK NOT LESS

there seems to be an overwhelming collective thought process suggesting that once the US begins the war on IRAQ (BOMBING/INVADING/OVERTHROWING) (which actually began a few months ago) the risks going forward will be deminished.
alot of this thought process is based on the "hope" that the war will be quick and decisive and as effective as the 1991 conflict results. i would contend that not only would the risk not be deminished but it would be GREATLY increased for the following reasons.

currently, with no hostilities and just political wrangling, there is much less risk of "unknown" events happening. once we start to 'officially' attack iraq, all the 'unknowns' that we fear come into play. i.e. destruction of oil wells, disruption of oil supply, chemical attack on US troops, scuds to nieghboring countries, terror attack retaliation in the US or on interests overseas, etc, etc, etc. by the way, these so called 'unknown' events are very known and somewhat ANTICIPATED and EXPECTED! but that will not alleviate there disasterous and scary effects.

in the last few days we have seen the market cave in upon the news of an explosion in staten island(just an industrial accident according to US investigators) and an oil well explosion in iraq(just another industrial accident according to the iraqis?). what will happen if and WHEN our troops get hit with chemicals? what will happen if saddam blows up an oil tanker or starts pumping oil into the persian gulf? what will happen if he lobs a scud at kuwait, saudi arabia, turkey, or g-d forbid ISRAEL (sharon stated clearly that the israeli military will retaliate if saddam attacks israel...and they wont wait for a UN resolution!). and what if something we are not prepared for happens?!? how will the market react then? how will the world react? i do not know the answers but it wont make the fears or risks go away.

my point is that once the WAR begins the risks we are all fearing will become much more likely. our leaders are warning us to be prepared for a long and difficult battle against terror and continue to warn us of attacks in the US. my sense is that we should heed the warnings and get prepared for lots of "unknowns" and a much more risky world.

have a grateful day!

larry