Thursday, October 16, 2008


I think the market is "broken"
The volatility & confusion & fear is creating a trading environment that is dysfunctional. Most if not all trading/investing decisions are being motivated not by fundamentals, but by fear of unknown loss, sometimes in a different asset. For example, if you are losing money in a low priced or illiquid asset, then you sell whatever is liquid & worth more, just to reduce risk & shore up capital, for future losses in the illiquid stuff. This is playing out in a very violent fashion in the equity markets, as literally hundreds of hedge funds are all liquidating portfolios, without regard for fundamental valuation. We are quite literally seeing floods of stocks being sold into a market that has no appetite for the supply. So, it looks as though the whole thing is essentially broken, unable to function properly. Investors & managers of capital will naturally withdraw from this type of environment, just to protect & preserve capital. The trading ranges have been expanded in a magnitude that will create a distrust in market selloffs or rallys. We will need to see a period of relative calm before the market can truly stabilize. And even when we get that settling in & reduced volatility, investors trust will be hard to regain. Nothing will be trusted again. No corporate leader, no government official, no financial intermediary, no selloff & no rally... The market is broken. The perception & now the reality is that financial markets are dysfunctional, risky, & not to be trusted. We have entered a new phase/period where investors large & small, rich & poor, long term or shortterm will have an aversion & fundamental distrust in the financial system & equity mkts.