Friday, March 25, 2005

OIL = WMD
Its no secret that Osama Bin Laden is from Saudi Arabia. Its no secret that the Saudi Government has nascent ties to the Bin Laden family. It's also no secret that al Qaida has made it perfectly clear that while it would enjoy killing massive numbers of Americans in terrorist attacks, it would also like to take down the American way of life and our economic power. Recent reports from U.S. intelligence highlight the very real possibility of a terror attack on our financial system. In fact, experts believe that in the future al-Qaida, or other radical groups bent on terrorism, will deploy weapons of mass economic disruption rather than weapons of mass destruction.
I believe that the current Oil crisis is the beginning of a concerted effort by the al Qaida organization, with the help of OPEC...knowingly or unknowingly, to take down the American economy in a stealth attack that will only be realized once its too late to defend against it. Slowly, for the last 2 years oil prices have risen in the face of OPEC and non-OPEC countries trying to keep oil prices within a band of $22-28/barrel. Why then is oil now $58/barrel? OPEC says it has lost control of the pricing and its due to speculators and hedge funds. OPEC has dropped the stated price band. Saudi Arabia has pledged to keep the market well supplied. Other OPEC countries have also committed to helping with supply and have made statements regarding the price of oil being too high. So why then is oil $58/barrel and setting its sights on higher prices? Why hasn't any of the mechanisms put in place to control the flow and pricing of oil worked? I contend that OPEC doesn't really want to control it and in fact is being motivated by either their own self interests or by Al Qaida pressure to continue to squeeze the U.S. economy. The benefits for OPEC is huge profits from the high price of their oil as well as maintaining a certain control over the U.S. which is flexing its military power in their part of the world. It also hurts the U.S. economy and American consumers, which deep down inside, most outside the U.S. do not care for in the least, and in fact feel as though we deserve to suffer for the ills we cause others around the world...namely in Iraq and our policies towards the Israeli/Palestinian conflict...to name just a few. Oil could very well be the terrorists best and easiest weapon of mass distruction...and we can't do a thing about it.

Wednesday, March 23, 2005

SNOW JOB
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Wednesday in an interview on MSNBC that inflation isn't becoming a problem for the U.S. economy. While he noted that energy prices have risen to "unwelcome" levels, and he "hopes that we can start to move the other way on that," the Treasury Secretary told MSNBC's Ron Insana that "we're going to continue to have a basically low inflation environment for the indefinite future." He cited an "open economy," productivity, underutilized assets, and the inherent competitiveness of the U.S. economy as reasons for his views.
These comments by the U.S. Treasury Secretary seem to be in stark contrast to the thinking inside the Federal Reserve Building. Federal Reserve Chairman, Sir Alan Greenspan and the sitting Governors seemed to imply, infer, and intimate that indeed inflation is a concern. The financial markets took heed to the statements coming from the FOMC and sold off the long bond pushing interest rates up to their highest point since the summer of 2004. The PPI and CPI data points were hotter than expected as well in the most recent reports, yet Treasury Secretary Snow seems to know better and is using different data.
This Treasury Secretarys statement seems to go well with his "broken record" comments about how the U.S. Government support for a strong US$ policy. The US$ continues to decline in value while the Treasury Secretary mouths the words that the US government supports a strong US$ policy.
His statement about inflation is a continuation of his seemingly uninformed or ignorant rhetoric and hope for an economy that validates the Bush administrations economic policies and tax cuts.
The reality of rising interest rates, falling US$, high energy prices, and no new tax cuts to fall back on, the Bush economic plan has failed to produce results for the majority of the US population.
The coming recessionary period will be difficult for the Republicans to explain away and will be deeper than the recession that was interrupted by the ill advised tax cuts and emergency low interest rates.
As many pundits have pointed out, the FED has opted to replace one asset bubble with another, in the form of real estate for stocks. With Japan as our economic alter ego, their experience which is still ongoing, is what we can look forward to. Japan has been in a recession/depression for almost 20 years now following the bursting of their real estate bubble. The which resulted in banking problems and economic malaise that continues today.
Treasury Secratary Snow reiterated his views on Thursday 3/24/05 with the following comments>>>>
WILMINGTON, Del. (Dow Jones)--The outlook for U.S. inflation is "benign" thanks to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said Thursday. "Fortunately, we still have an overall benign inflationary environment as indicated (Tuesday) by the (Federal Open Market Committee's) statement and action," Snow told reporters following a speech on Social Security reform. "It's important for the Fed to continue to do as it has been doing - anticipate forces and lean against them." On Tuesday, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the seventh straight meeting. In a statement released after the decision, the Fed described the pace of recent U.S. economic growth as "solid," a more upbeat assessment than the FOMC had at its last meeting in early February, when it described the pace as "moderate." The panel also added a caveat to its previous statements that the competing risks of inflation and a renewed economic downturn are "roughly equal." That expectation, it said, is subject to the continuation of "appropriate monetary policy." Concerns over inflation have been raised by rising gasoline prices and reports businesses have had found it easier to pass on higher costs to consumers. On Wednesday, the U.S. government reported that consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in four months in February, boosted by energy prices. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% last month, four times the rate in January, the Labor Department said. Higher energy prices accounted for "virtually all of the acceleration," the department said. But the core index, which excludes volatile food and energy items, also climbed sharply at 0.3% - the fastest rate since September. "It is important we stay vigilant on inflation," Snow said.

Sunday, March 20, 2005

Whats Congress got to do with it??
Terry Schaivo and her family have big problems. This poor lady has been a medical vegetable and a political hot potato for the last 15 years. Countless dollars and energy has been expended to fight and argue about what is done with her. Why all the attention? Why all the interest? Why all the media coverage? Don't we as a country have more to do on other more important issues than to wrangle over whether the life, if you can call it that, of a comatose woman should be sustained or not? We as individuals and as a country have much bigger problems. As far as I'm concerned, it is none of my business and is not the business of the Congress.
Steroid use in baseball is pretty much a non-event and for most spectators and enthusiasts a yawner. Steroid use in professional sports is a "given". We as consumers of the sporting events are all for the athletes being able to achieve new records and do amazing things in their sports. We have changed every sport over the years by using better materials to make the equipment used and by training athletes at younger ages and with more sophisticated training equipment, diets, and programs. Steroid use is just a natural extension of that and if athletes want to use drugs to enhance their ability, its their right to do so. Its not Congress' job to get involved and regulate athletes diets or training regimines.
Congress is put in place by the electorate of their individual states to pass laws and govern the country. They are not put in power to play with social issues that have nothing to do with governing the country or making laws for the betterment of the American people. The recent time, effort, and focus on the Schaivo case and steriods in baseball is a blatant misuse of their power and is a distraction from the much more pressing issues this country has to deal with.
Terry Schaivo's family should handle their problem and I wish them well. I wouldn't want to have to deal with what they are going through. But it is their personal family matter.
Major League Baseball should handle their steroid problem. All athletes need to weigh the costs and benefits of succeeding at any cost in their respective sports versus their long term health and well being.
Neither of these issues should be handled by the Congress of the United States.

Friday, March 18, 2005

DRILLING FOR OIL IN THE
Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve
Not a Solution

The Congress has now opened up the possibility and increased the probability that 'Big Oil' will be allowed to drill for oil in the Alaskan National Wildlife Reserve. The President has urged this and has said that this will help to ease our dependence on foriegn oil. At forecasted peak output which will take a few years, ANWR oil fields will produce 1 million barrels of oil a day. That would be about 5% of our daily consumption. Hardly enough to reduce our dependence on OPEC.

What opening up ANWR does is delay the inevitable for an oil addicted US economy. There will be a day, in the not too distant future, when a sudden disruption in the flow of oil occurs. That will be the equivalent of a withdrawal from oil to run our factories, electric plants, fuel our airplanes and automobiles, heat & cool our homes and offices, along with all the products and by-products we use oil for. ANWR is no solution and is not even a band-aid for what is sure to be a very harsh reality.
By opening up ANWR, we are doing the equivalent of selling our body parts for drug money to support an out of control habit. The only solution to our dependence on foriegn oil and resolving our nations energy crisis is to develop alternative energy sources. The time was 30 years ago, 1974, when we were put on notice of how powerful OPEC is and how dependent we are on the oil they supply to us. Now we face a national emergency. If we spent the money that we are spending to fund the War in Iraq to fund research to develop other forms of energy and to kick the fossil fuel addiction, we could do it and fix the problem permanently.
Big oil won't allow it. Politicians are too weak to make the hard decisions to lead the nation properly. And the American consumer is resistant to changing bad habits and accepting a new reality. Our nation as a whole is resistant to change, and we have a history of waiting until change is forced upon us...that change is coming and alot sooner than most are prepared for.
The time to act is now. ANWR is not the solution. Invading Iraq to secure huge oil reserves is not the solution. We must spend the required money to develop new energy sources and implement a national energy policy and changes in transportation and electricity generation ASAP.
Big oil needs to help. The automobile manufacturers need to get on board. Consumers must demand the alternatives. And our government must provide the funding and facilitate the changes before this change is forced upon this country.
Bush: "No Question" US Is "Hooked" On Foreign Energy

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Faced with surging crude oil and gasoline prices, President George W. Bush said Wednesday that U.S. consumers must change the way they use energy, and the country must develop hydrogen-powered automobiles. Bush added there is "no question" the U.S. is currently "hooked" on foreign sources of energy. "We are going to have to change our habits. We are going to have develop hydrogen-powered automobiles," Bush said. Bush made the comments at a joint press conference with Mexican President Vicente Fox and Canadian Prime Minister Paul Martin. Bush noted the U.S. and Canadian automobile industries are already highly integrated and expressed the hope this will lead the U.S. and Canada to develop cutting-edge technology for a new generation of cars that use hydrogen as a fuel source. Turning to the U.S., Bush said it was clear the economy needs to be regeared to consume less energy. "We are using a lot of it (energy), and we need to conserve better in the United States. We are dependent on energy from overseas and we need to become less dependent on energy from overseas," Bush said. Bush praised Canada's efforts to produce oil from tar sands, and said the U.S., Mexico and Canada needed to share technology for producing energy. "There is a lot we can do and will do on energy," Bush said. Once again, Bush said lawmakers ought to look at the cost of gasoline and crude oil and pass his package of energy legislation. "I put forth a strategy to the United States Congress in 2001 and they are still debating it," Bush said. "Now is the time to get a bill to my desk. This is the year." For his part, Martin noted Canada has a huge untapped resource in the form of hydro-power and added the energy sector in North America will be a big plus for all three countries. "Canada has great potential in terms of hydro-electricity," Martin said. He pointed to the potential for more power from northern Manitoba, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador. "The whole energy sector for all of us is a huge opportunity in terms of our competitiveness with the rest of the world," Martin said.

Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Turn up the A/C

If you are hot this summer, just head to Iraq where the U.S. Government will be making sure that the A/C works great so as to keep the Iraqis comfortable while we try to stablize their country. The U.S. government plans to spend something near $19 billion of our tax dollars to rebuild the electrical grid in Iraq so that the A/C works well this summer.

According to the Reuters news service, The United States is reshuffling Iraq rebuilding funds, putting more focus on electricity before the hot summer months to ease tensions exacerbated by daily power cuts, senior U.S. officials said on Tuesday. Bill Taylor, a senior U.S. Embassy official in Baghdad, said use of the $18.4 billion allocated by Congress for rebuilding Iraq was being reassessed to deal with surging electricity demands caused by air-conditioning in the summer, particularly in Baghdad. "We all know the Iraqi summers are very tough and very hot and electricity is very important to get these people through it," said Taylor in a telephone interview from Baghdad. "We want to increase output, reduce the outages and we want the Iraqi people to see that their government is making their lives better," he added.

There you have it. If you are hot this summer, head to Iraq. If you feel like you are paying too much to the IRS this April, feel good knowing that you are in some way assisting in the War on Terror and in helping to spread Democracy, and air conditioning, in the Middle East. Is this a great country or what?!