DOW = NIKKEI...but the US is not JAPAN
With both indexes at roughly the same numeric valuation (10,500) it seemed like a good time to do a comparative analysis to see if its anything other than coincidence. For purposes of an historical perspective, the NIKKEI average rose from below 10,000 to 40,000 during its boom that ended sometime in the late 1980's. Following that came a period of nearly 20 years where the Japanese economy and stock market went into a tailspin where deflation and recession persisted till about last year. The NIKKEI bottomed at around 7,000 in early 2003 and has since rallied to its current level of around 10,500 up nearly 50% from its lows.
By comparison, the DOW peaked in 2000 at around 11,000 after rising for about 18 years from a starting point of around 1,000. Then the US bubble popped and it began a decent to around 7,000 before bottoming and beginning its own 50% move up to its current level of around 10,500. Since the US is not Japan, in any way shape or form, at least according to most economists and wall street strategists, our much more fundamentally sound and resilient economy halted the decline relatively quickly and rebounded in record speed.
Unlike the slow to react Japanese government, the US government responded to the economic problems with emergency tax relief, twice extended unemployment benefits, huge government spending, initiating wars in Afghanistan & Iraq, some more tax relief, pension funding relief holiday for large US corporations, and encouraged the Federal Reserve Bank to lower US interest rates 13 times to the lowest levels in 50 years with the promise of leaving them there for a considerable period of time. All of which kept and continues to keep debt laden US consumers spending and borrowing at unprecedented rates.
Japan's government opted for the long and drawn out process of economic repair by allowing for a painfully long recession including rampant deflation, bankruptcies, bad debt writeoffs and huge corporate restructurings and reorganizations. I will assume that the Japanese government was either unaware or unable to utilize the economic 'tool box' the US government used in order to repair our broken bubble in only 3 years while it took nearly 20 years to repair the Japanese economy.
The FED says that inflationary and deflationary forces are in balance and that due to the existence of "slack" in the labor markets, rates can stay put and the free money policy will remain...at least until President Bush is re-elected. Treasury Secretary, John Snow, claims we stand by a 'strong dollar' policy yet our dollar has fallen to record low levels vs. the yen, euro and sterling reflecting a sort of vote of "no confidence" in our twin deficit economic policy.
The fact our stock market has rallied sharply from its recent lows is a trophy to the FED chairman's liquidity campaign and to the Presidents political propaganda machine convincing the American investor that all is back on track for a new boomtime. False hope for sure as the biggest boom and bubble cannot be popped and restored in such a short period of time regardless of the words being said and policies being forced into the system.
In any other country, our reckless financial management and manipulation would have caused hyper-inflation and currency destruction. Yet here in the omnipotent US, it is seen as sound fiscal policy?! I think not, and shortly, our equity markets will realize this and resume the bear market and retrace the gains of the 2003 and much of the 1990's bubble valuations, just like Japan did, before it recovered.
One thing in the US economy that has gotten remarkably similar to something that happened in Japan during its long boom, is the prices and sales activity in the US real estate market, a lot like what happened in Japan prior to its longterm bear market. The fact that our stock markets are now at the same numeric valuation is some sort of fluke that will not remain for long. America is not Japan. The Dow is not the NIKKEI. The Dollar is not the Yen. The Bear market in the US is not over yet.
Thursday, January 22, 2004
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
1987 ON HIGH SPEED ACCESS...THE BIG KAHUNA
Did you have high speed internet access in 1987? Me neither. Isn't technology great? Today I can access the internet from my cell phone, I can e-mail you from my Blackberry, I can get instant alerts on my PDA. And I can do it all very fast from anywhere. What a world we live in. Some people say they are always "in touch" and can be reached anytime of day or night on any one of a number of devices that keep them connected to their business, friends, & loved ones.
While all the connectivity may be good for business and for staying in touch with your spouse, there may be one problem that nobody is thinking about. Being connected may let too many people know about, and act upon, a stock market correction or crash, faster than anybody might like.
In 1987, one of the biggest problems, other than the market dropping 23% in a single day, was that investors could not get through to there brokers or mutual fund companies to place orders, which were mostly to sell. By the time the dust settled, many investors were locked out of trading and it was too late to sell or buy anything. Today, with all the high speed internet connections, cell phones, PDA's, blackberry pagers and the like, everybody will know what's happening at the same time, and will be able to act upon that information, in real time and very fast. No broker to call or mutual fund hold messages to annoy you. Just hit the "enter" key and its done.
Since 1987, the NYSE and the NASDAQ marketplace have ramped up there trading capacity by many fold, which would allow huge amounts of volume to be executed by the masses. Yes there are market triggers that would halt trading at various stages of a large market move, yet that would only temporarily stop the deluge of sell orders coming in from every DSL line and cable modem that has been installed over the past few years.
A high speed access, fully connected 1987 style crash would look very different. Volume would be enormous. For example, if volume were to jump say 5x normal, some 8 billion shares would trade on the NYSE and about 10 billion on the NASDAQ. What's amazing is that the new systems in place could probably handle it. Volatility would be historic, as sellers and buyers would be able to "get through" and place orders at an unbelievable speed, allowing for great trading action and potentially great profits and losses.
I do not know how the market triggers would hurt or help, but suffice to say, that traders and investors would not rely on those stop gap measures to see how and even if they would stem the declines. When I think about a 2004 market crash, it is not only scary but exciting as well, because nobody knows how it would look or feel. If its anything like surfing the web, I think the "Big Kahuna" will be an apt way for it to be described.
Did you have high speed internet access in 1987? Me neither. Isn't technology great? Today I can access the internet from my cell phone, I can e-mail you from my Blackberry, I can get instant alerts on my PDA. And I can do it all very fast from anywhere. What a world we live in. Some people say they are always "in touch" and can be reached anytime of day or night on any one of a number of devices that keep them connected to their business, friends, & loved ones.
While all the connectivity may be good for business and for staying in touch with your spouse, there may be one problem that nobody is thinking about. Being connected may let too many people know about, and act upon, a stock market correction or crash, faster than anybody might like.
In 1987, one of the biggest problems, other than the market dropping 23% in a single day, was that investors could not get through to there brokers or mutual fund companies to place orders, which were mostly to sell. By the time the dust settled, many investors were locked out of trading and it was too late to sell or buy anything. Today, with all the high speed internet connections, cell phones, PDA's, blackberry pagers and the like, everybody will know what's happening at the same time, and will be able to act upon that information, in real time and very fast. No broker to call or mutual fund hold messages to annoy you. Just hit the "enter" key and its done.
Since 1987, the NYSE and the NASDAQ marketplace have ramped up there trading capacity by many fold, which would allow huge amounts of volume to be executed by the masses. Yes there are market triggers that would halt trading at various stages of a large market move, yet that would only temporarily stop the deluge of sell orders coming in from every DSL line and cable modem that has been installed over the past few years.
A high speed access, fully connected 1987 style crash would look very different. Volume would be enormous. For example, if volume were to jump say 5x normal, some 8 billion shares would trade on the NYSE and about 10 billion on the NASDAQ. What's amazing is that the new systems in place could probably handle it. Volatility would be historic, as sellers and buyers would be able to "get through" and place orders at an unbelievable speed, allowing for great trading action and potentially great profits and losses.
I do not know how the market triggers would hurt or help, but suffice to say, that traders and investors would not rely on those stop gap measures to see how and even if they would stem the declines. When I think about a 2004 market crash, it is not only scary but exciting as well, because nobody knows how it would look or feel. If its anything like surfing the web, I think the "Big Kahuna" will be an apt way for it to be described.
"THE FEEL GOOD PRESIDENT"
How do you feel about President Bush? If you are like most, at least according to every poll taken recently, it seems fairly clear that you, along with most Americans, like George W. Bush. Even if you don't like all his policies, or think he could use some grammar lessons, for the most part, we all think he's doing a pretty good job of keeping America safe and fostering an environment of renewed economic prosperity.
Reality and perception can differ a bit, or a lot, and while the perception of late, is that things at home are safer and more prosperous, the reality might not be so rosy. Far be it for me to be the downer, but is the country really safer now than it was before 9/11 and our multiple victories in Afghanistan and Iraq? And, is the economy really doing better? In every public comment to the media and the American people, President Bush states that we are safer, and we are back on the economic road to prosperity.
Yet, Secretary of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge, has stated many times that we are still at war and that we must remain vigilant and on guard as terrorists are still plotting to attack us in our country and abroad. IN fact, we remain at a state of 'Yellow' on the terror threat level, which represents an elevated state of alert for a terrorist attack. In the two countries where we have invaded and installed new security and democratic rule, Afghanistan and Iraq, the security situation has remained as dangerous as ever. US soldiers and indigenous civilians have come under continuous attacks even while we claim victory and success in those initial battles in the war against terror. And as recently as late December 2003, the US was put on a state of 'Orange' alert for a terror attack, the 5th time since the 9/11 attacks. I would argue that we are not safer or more secure than we were before 9/11 and the President's political propaganda is just a way to keep his adoring public feeling happy and at ease.
As for the economy, while the President says that the economy is recovering, and he won't be satisfied until everyone who wants a job has one, including illegal immigrants, many of his top advisers and Cabinet Secretary's signal something different. In fact, the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, has left interest rates at there lowest level in 50 years even while the economy posted 8.2% GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2003. Secretary of Labor, Elaine Choa, says that the labor market will pick up as the economy continues to improve, yet the unemployed are remaining so for longer and longer periods of time, and the last extension of unemployment benefits has recently run out. Corporations are still outsourcing jobs to India and the cost cutting, also known as layoffs, at major US corporations has only slowed down rather than stopped.
Secretary of Treasury, John Snow, while claiming we have a "strong dollar policy" watches as the dollar continues to lose value, which he secretly hopes will continue to goose US corporate earnings and sales overseas, even while it is forcing oil and other commodity prices higher. Mr. Snow also states that the economy is improved, yet cautions that there is still much work to do in order to get the economy onto a 'sustainable growth path".
All the while, President Bush, and his Chief Strategist, Carl Rove, scheme to figure out which voter block they can appeal to next. Constituents interested in the exploration of space got there bone last week. That was on the heals of the nations new Illegal Immigrant work program policy shift. Medicare recipients were tricked into believing that the prescription drug benefit was for there benefit. No child left behind was a Democratic policy program adopted by the newly caring Republican party. I am sure that Carl Rove is devising other programs to woe each and every American into the Bush party for a landslide election in the fall.
The facts and the reality are much more sobering then all the "feel good" propaganda and political rhetoric that comes out of the White House. Time is clearly on the Presidents side, as the elections are only 8 months away, yet we will all have to live with the reckless economic and foriegn policies that have been forced onto the American people over the last 3 years far beyond President Bush's 2nd term.
How do you feel about President Bush? If you are like most, at least according to every poll taken recently, it seems fairly clear that you, along with most Americans, like George W. Bush. Even if you don't like all his policies, or think he could use some grammar lessons, for the most part, we all think he's doing a pretty good job of keeping America safe and fostering an environment of renewed economic prosperity.
Reality and perception can differ a bit, or a lot, and while the perception of late, is that things at home are safer and more prosperous, the reality might not be so rosy. Far be it for me to be the downer, but is the country really safer now than it was before 9/11 and our multiple victories in Afghanistan and Iraq? And, is the economy really doing better? In every public comment to the media and the American people, President Bush states that we are safer, and we are back on the economic road to prosperity.
Yet, Secretary of Homeland Security, Tom Ridge, has stated many times that we are still at war and that we must remain vigilant and on guard as terrorists are still plotting to attack us in our country and abroad. IN fact, we remain at a state of 'Yellow' on the terror threat level, which represents an elevated state of alert for a terrorist attack. In the two countries where we have invaded and installed new security and democratic rule, Afghanistan and Iraq, the security situation has remained as dangerous as ever. US soldiers and indigenous civilians have come under continuous attacks even while we claim victory and success in those initial battles in the war against terror. And as recently as late December 2003, the US was put on a state of 'Orange' alert for a terror attack, the 5th time since the 9/11 attacks. I would argue that we are not safer or more secure than we were before 9/11 and the President's political propaganda is just a way to keep his adoring public feeling happy and at ease.
As for the economy, while the President says that the economy is recovering, and he won't be satisfied until everyone who wants a job has one, including illegal immigrants, many of his top advisers and Cabinet Secretary's signal something different. In fact, the Federal Reserve chairman, Alan Greenspan, has left interest rates at there lowest level in 50 years even while the economy posted 8.2% GDP growth in the 3rd quarter of 2003. Secretary of Labor, Elaine Choa, says that the labor market will pick up as the economy continues to improve, yet the unemployed are remaining so for longer and longer periods of time, and the last extension of unemployment benefits has recently run out. Corporations are still outsourcing jobs to India and the cost cutting, also known as layoffs, at major US corporations has only slowed down rather than stopped.
Secretary of Treasury, John Snow, while claiming we have a "strong dollar policy" watches as the dollar continues to lose value, which he secretly hopes will continue to goose US corporate earnings and sales overseas, even while it is forcing oil and other commodity prices higher. Mr. Snow also states that the economy is improved, yet cautions that there is still much work to do in order to get the economy onto a 'sustainable growth path".
All the while, President Bush, and his Chief Strategist, Carl Rove, scheme to figure out which voter block they can appeal to next. Constituents interested in the exploration of space got there bone last week. That was on the heals of the nations new Illegal Immigrant work program policy shift. Medicare recipients were tricked into believing that the prescription drug benefit was for there benefit. No child left behind was a Democratic policy program adopted by the newly caring Republican party. I am sure that Carl Rove is devising other programs to woe each and every American into the Bush party for a landslide election in the fall.
The facts and the reality are much more sobering then all the "feel good" propaganda and political rhetoric that comes out of the White House. Time is clearly on the Presidents side, as the elections are only 8 months away, yet we will all have to live with the reckless economic and foriegn policies that have been forced onto the American people over the last 3 years far beyond President Bush's 2nd term.